May 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 27 April 2007
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Aide Memoire

Important matters pending before the Council include:

  • The formation of the tribunal of international character to prosecute the suspects in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri is still pending. On 6 February, Lebanon and the UN, with approval from the Security Council, signed an agreement for the establishment of the tribunal. But the ratification process is blocked by political factions in Beirut.
  • The draft resolution on small arms circulated by Argentina in March 2006 seems to have lapsed. South Africa circulated a draft presidential statement in March 2007. The issue was included as a footnote on the Council’s calendar in March and April but it has not yet been taken up.  The absence of a Council decision on this matter leaves future periodic Secretary-General’s reports in abeyance.
  • Implementation of the phased approach for Darfur as agreed in Abuja in November 2006 is lagging. A more detailed AU-UN agreement on the hybrid operation as endorsed by the Council on 19 December was still pending at press time.
  • No action, as envisaged in resolution 1706 in Darfur, has been taken to impose “strong effective measures, such as assets freeze or travel ban, against any individual or group that violates or attempts to block the implementation of the [Darfur Peace] Agreement or commits human rights violations.”  A number of proposals are being considered but divisions remain.
  • Action on the Secretary-General’s recommendations for a peacekeeping force in Chad and the Central African Republic is still awaited, because of Chad’s hesitation about both the proposed robust military component and a credible political reconciliation process.
  • On the DRC, the Council is still to consider imposing individual sanctions under resolution 1698 against armed groups that recruit children. 
  • On West Africa, the Council held consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on cross-border issues on 16 March but no follow-up has been considered, which may put future reports in that regard in abeyance.
  • The Council is still waiting for the Secretary-General’s recommendations on the status of the Sheb’a Farms. In his last report on implementation of resolution 1701 (issued on 14 March), the Secretary-General mentioned good progress on the cartographic analysis of the status of the farms, and said that the technical work would be completed by the next reporting period in mid-June.
  • The December 2004 report by the Secretary-General on human rights violations in Côte d’Ivoire, requested by a presidential statement, has still not been made public. Also on Côte d’Ivoire, the December 2005 report by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide has not been published.
  • Since the beginning of the year, the Council has had difficulty agreeing on the plans for its visiting missions. Under discussion were trips to West Africa (including Côte d’Ivoire), Timor-Leste, Central Africa and the Middle East. So far, only one mission, to Kosovo, was agreed by all members, and it is underway at press time. A Council mission to meet with AU leadership (in Addis Ababa and Accra) is another possibility.
  • The 2005 World Summit requested reforms relating to the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to be addressed.

Full forecast


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