April 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 27 March 2007
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in our March Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs in this issue.  However, other interesting Council developments in March included:

  • Small Arms: The lapsed draft resolution on small arms circulated in March 2006, compounded by the lack of Council action on this issue, has left the Secretariat for some time without a mandate to produce periodic reports.  However, a draft presidential statement is currently in circulation and will possibly be adopted by month’s end.  The draft statement calls for a report from the Secretary-General on small arms within the next six months.
  • Women, Peace and Security: On 7 March, the eve of International Women’s Day, the Council adopted a presidential statement condemning violence against women and girls in conflict. In addition, the statement reaffirmed women’s role in peacebuilding and stressed the importance of increasing women’s participation in decision-making in peacekeeping operations as well as at the national and local levels. (S/PRST/2007/5)
  • Iraq: On 7 March the Council held consultations on the latest UNMOVIC report (S/2007/106).  South Africa, Council president in March, announced to the media that the US and UK are drafting a resolution to terminate the mandate which may be circulated in the coming weeks.  On 15 March the Council was briefed on UNAMI and the MNF (SC/8971). The Secretary-General’s latest report was also under consideration (S/2007/126).
  • Great Lakes Region: Ibrahima Fall, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the Great Lakes Region, briefed the Council on 9 March prior to the expiration of his office’s final mandate on 31 March. Fall stressed that quick implementation of the December 2006 Nairobi Security Pact and the establishment of a regional secretariat were vital goals and the Council should support efforts toward ratifying the Pact (SC/8968). 
  • Côte d’Ivoire: The Council issued a press statement (SC/8970) on 14 March in support of the 4 March agreement (S/2007/144) signed by Côte d’Ivoire’s president and opposition leader in Ouagadougou. The Secretary-General’s latest report recommended engaging with the parties on the UN’s role in helping implement the Ouagadougou agreement (S/2007/133). 
  • West Africa: The Council held consultations on 16 March to discuss the 13 March report from the Secretary-General on cross-border issues in West Africa, originally expected at the end of 2006 (S/2007/143).  With little time for Council members to analyse the report and form positions, the consultations yielded no outcome. It is unclear when and in what context the Council will consider the issue again.  (Please see our 15 March Update.)
  • Uganda: On 22 March the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Joaquim Chissano, briefed the Council under the agenda item “Great Lakes Region (LRA)” on the latest developments in the peace talks between the Ugandan government and the LRA. The Council adopted a presidential statement expressing support for the Special Envoy and the resumed peace talks (S/PRST/2007/6). (Please see our 20 March Update.)
  • Afghanistan: On 23 March the Council extended UNAMA’s mandate for 12 months in resolution 1746 as recommended in the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2007/152).  A briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative Tom Koenigs and Antonio Maria Costa of UNODC on 20 March urged the Council to support the Afghanistan National Development Strategy and the Secretary-General’s recommendations to address corruption in government institutions, border control and the drug trade.
  • Iran: On 24 March the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1747 tightening sanctions on Iran and requesting a report from the IAEA within sixty days.
  • Regional Organisations, Chapter VIII: On 28 March the Council will hold an open debate, initiated by the March presidency of South Africa and chaired by the South African foreign minister, on the relationship between the UN and regional organisations (S/2007/148). A presidential statement is expected to place particular emphasis on the relationship between the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council in light of current peace and security challenges in Africa. (Please see our 23 March Update.)
  • Guinea-Bissau: On 29 March the Council will hold consultations on the latest UNOGBIS report from the Secretary-General (S/2007/158). The potential instability stemming from a recent no-confidence motion by Guinea-Bissau’s parliament against the prime minister will be on Council members’ minds as they consider the report.
  • Liberia: On 30 March the Council is expected to renew UNMIL’s mandate. The Secretary-General’s latest report recommended a one-year extension and continued cooperation between UNMIL and UNOCI (S/2007/151).
  • Zimbabwe: At press time OCHA was expected to brief the Council on the humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe. South Africa, as president of the Council for March, seemed less convinced that there were international peace and security implications but did not oppose the Council being briefed.

Full forecast

 

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