April 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 27 March 2007
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Overview

The United Kingdom will preside over the Council in April. It is unclear whether any thematic debates will take place. Press reports have indicated a possibility of the Council’s holding a thematic debate on the impact of climate change on security issues, but no decision had been taken at press time. Climate change has been one of the issues Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has singled out as his priority early on in this tenure.

Open meetings of the Council in April will include the monthly briefing on the Middle East. There will also be several meetings adopting resolutions renewing mandates:

  • on Georgia, renewing the mandate of UNOMIG;
  • on the DRC renewing the mandate of MONUC;
  • on Western Sahara renewing MINURSO’s mandate; and
  • on Sudan, renewing the UNMIS mandate.

A private briefing by the Secretary-General on his trip to the Middle East is expected.  It will provide an important focus for discussions on Lebanon and Darfur in particular. Similarly, the new Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, John Holmes, is expected to brief the Council on his trip to the conflict-torn Darfur region.

Consultations are expected on:

Kosovo
The Secretary-General’s Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari is expected to brief the Council early in the month. The United Kingdom, having played a key role in the formulation of resolution 1244 in 1999, would probably like to see significant progress on Kosovo during its presidency. Russia would prefer to delay Council action and give time for further negotiation. At this stage it is impossible to predict whether the Council will do anything in April beyond receiving the report and the briefing and consulting on timing and process.  However, it is likely that a draft resolution will begin to circulate at least amongst small groups.

Western Sahara
The renewal of the MINURSO mandate in Western Sahara has been routine, with six-month extensions being expected and the stalemate on the ground continuing. This April, however, Council members may receive a Moroccan plan for extended autonomy for Western Sahara. This document has been expected since Morocco announced the possibility more than a year ago. The document has been informally presented in a number of capitals. But it remains unclear whether it will be formally transmitted to the Council and if it is, whether Council members will have sufficient time to study it before MINURSO’s mandate expires at the end of the month. Another issue outside the recent routine is growing concern about the human rights situation. A recent report by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights revealed severe cases of violations by Morocco in Western Sahara as well as breaches by Polisario in the Tindouf refugee camps in Algeria.  Parallels with the Kosovo dossier may also play a role in how the parties and some Council members view any Moroccan proposal.

Democratic Republicof the Congo
After a two-month technical rollover of the mandate of MONUC, the Council will again face the question of how to preserve the very fragile peace in the DRC. There have been several troubling developments, including clashes between supporters of President Joseph Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba in the capital late in March and the displacement of thousands of people in the country.  The Council will need to face the question of whether any reduction in the size of MONUC would be prudent at this stage. Examples of other missions prematurely downsized, notably that in Timor-Leste, will be on members’ minds. The issue of sanctions to target peace spoilers, which has been on a back-burner for months, may also receive renewed attention.

Lebanon
The Council postponed its consideration of the 1701 report, originally planned for March, until April, in order to hear the Secretary-General’s observations on his Middle East trip prior to that discussion. Much will depend on the outcome of the Arab League Summit and on whether any of the current diplomatic initiatives will be successful in brokering a political agreement between the government and the opposition.  If that fails and the crisis worsens, the Council may decide to look for ways to pressure the factions, keeping within the spirit and language of resolution 1701 which gives it a role in seeking long term solutions.  The Council will also need to decide what to do about various instances of violations of resolution 1701 described in the most recent Secretary-General’s report.

Iran
In mid-March the P5 plus Germany agreed on a draft resolution tightening sanctions on Iran by imposing a ban on arms sales and expanding the list of individuals and entities subject to asset freeze. The P5 strategy of working sequentially, first between themselves and only subsequently with the E10, received a setback when South Africa, Indonesia and Qatar asserted the right for negotiating space and incorporation of their own ideas in the resolution, delaying adoption by several days. On Saturday, 24 March, the resolution was unanimously adopted with minor changes to the original draft, such as reference to a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction and additional language on resuming negotiations in good faith and coming to a long-term agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. This seems to signal that incremental pressure will continue until Iran is ready to make a significant compromise to open the way for negotiations. However, Iran declared the resolution illegal and said it would reduce cooperation with the IAEA in response to it.

Darfur
The Council seems to be very close to the end of the road in trying to deal with Sudan over the implementation of the AU agreed package of support for AMIS and deployment of a robust hybrid operation. Work is actually underway by a number of members on a sanctions package and this seems increasingly likely to dominate discussions on Sudan and Darfur during April.

Full forecast

 

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