February 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 February 2007
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in our January Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs in this issue.  However, other interesting Council developments in January included:

  • Lebanon: On 5 January, Russia proposed a formal request to UNIIIC Commissioner Serge Brammertz for the names of the countries that were not fully cooperating with his investigation (referred to in his previous report S/2006/962). Most members seemed to prefer an alternate proposal, expressing readiness to assist the Commission further, but leaving it to Brammertz to decide if and when to reveal the names. However, Russia was reluctant to compromise and on 22 January decided to defer discussion of the draft letter.
  • Threats to International Peace and Security: Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addressed the Council on 8 January.  The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2007/1) welcoming the new Secretary-General and reaffirming its commitment to working in partnership with him.  (See our 5 January Update Report.)
  • Côte d’Ivoire: On 10 January the Council adopted resolution 1739, extending the mandate of the United Nations Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) until 30 June.  The resolution adjusted the mandate of UNOCI to emphasise the implementation of the roadmap and authorised UNOCI and the French forces to cooperate with the UN mission in Liberia (UNMIL) in preventing arms from crossing the border.
  • Georgia: The report of the Secretary-General on the situation in Abkhazia came out on 11 January 2006 (S/2007/15).
  • North Korea: On 11 January the chairman of the Sanctions Committee on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) briefed the Council on the status of the implementation of resolution 1718.
  • Israel/Palestine: A draft presidential statement on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, circulated by Indonesia, failed on 12 January due to lack of consensus within the Council.  (See our 11 January Update Report.)
  • Myanmar: A draft resolution on Myanmar (S/2007/14) was vetoed by China and Russia on 12 January (S/PV.5619). (See our 22 November Update Report.)
  • Nepal: Arms registration began on 17 January.  On 23 January the Council established the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) (S/RES/1740) as recommended by the Secretary-General in his latest report (S/2007/7).  (See our 17 January Update Report.)
  • Subsidiary Bodies: On 18 January the Council finalised the appointments of its 2007 chairpersons to Council committees, sanctions committees, working groups chairs and vice-chairs (S/2007/20).  (See our 17 January Update Report.)
  • Peacebuilding Commission: Panama and South Africa were elected as new members of the Peacebuilding Commission Organisational Committee.  On 23 January the Council held informal consultations on the Peacebuilding Commission, followed by an open debate on 31 January.  (See our 25 January Update Report).  Future consultations are scheduled for 26 February.
  • Ethiopia/Eritrea: The Council on 30 January adopted resolution 1741, renewing the mandate of the UN mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) until 30 July. The resolution reduced troop levels from 2300 to 1700 in accordance with the recommendations made in the Secretary-General’s reports (S/2006/992 and S/2007/33).
  • Children and Armed Conflict: The Secretary-General issued two reports to the Council on children and armed conflict in country specific situations, one on Nepal (S/2006/1007) and one on Sri Lanka (S/2006/1006).
  • Southern Sudan: Discussions on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) have been postponed until February.

Full forecast