January 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 22 December 2006
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AFRICA

Southern Sudan

Expected Council Action
The quarterly Secretary-General’s report on Sudan is due in January. Council action is not needed on the mandate of the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) since it expires on 30 April 2007. However, discussion of growing tensions and the linkages with the widening regional conflict is possible.

Key Recent Developments
Implementation of the 2005 north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) has met with mixed success. Most key appointments have been made at all levels and some major commissions and legislation have been set up, but the parties have not been able to adhere to some CPA deadlines.

Redeployment of the parties’ troops, the forming of Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) and the integration of other armed groups, in particular the South Sudan Defence Forces (SSDF) have led to renewed tension and clashes in violation of the CPA. Fighting took place in the southern town of Malakal in November, leaving 150 dead. Tensions seem to have abated somewhat in recent weeks under UNMIS auspices.

Difficulties have also arisen from the Government of South Sudan’s (GOSS) lack of resources. A strike by southern Sudanese forces deployed in JIUs near Juba following the non-payment of salaries in mid-December led to two deaths.

Options
Options include:

  • reinvigorating the Council’s attention to CPA implementation, perhaps a presidential statement addressing recent tensions; and
  • addressing more substantively the wider regional dimension, including the relationship between the CPA and the peace agreements in the east and Darfur.

Key Issues
The issue is whether to maintain Council focus on Darfur or, as part of a wider strategy to discourage unravelling of the CPA, to support mechanisms and timetables for implementation.

Another important issue involves the impact on CPA power-sharing structures from peace agreements in the east and Darfur. Both agreements, for example, call for twenty seats in the National Assembly for the rebels. A new peace process in Darfur could pose even greater challenges to the CPA’s political balance.

Council Dynamics
An unprecedented degree of Council involvement and pressure marked the signing of the CPA, culminating in the Council meeting in Nairobi in late 2004.

However, acutely deteriorating conditions in Darfur coupled with Khartoum’s negative approach to UN peacekeeping in that region has meant that Council attention has moved away from north-south matters. While there is no concrete progress on Darfur, some Council members will be reluctant to address north-south issues.  However, others are conscious of the wider regional dimension.

Background to the CPA and Underlying Problems
In 1983, fighting broke out between the Sudanese government led by the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Mediation efforts culminated in the CPA, signed on 9 January 2005, marking the end of a war in which an estimated two million were killed, four million were internally displaced, and 600,000 sought refuge in neighbouring countries.

The CPA provides a six-year interim period during which a census and general elections will be carried out, ending in 2011 with a referendum on independence for the south. Key provisions include the following:

  • Power-sharing: structures include the Government of National Unity (GNU), the GOSS, and state governments. The NCP was allotted 52 percent of seats and the SPLM 28 percent in the GNU. In the GOSS, the NCP was allotted 15 percent and the SPLM 70 percent. At the state level, in the north (including the Darfur states), the NCP will retain 80 percent and the SPLM 10 percent, and the reverse proportion in the south. 
  • Wealth-sharing: a National Land Commission will arbitrate on land and compensation. Oil revenues are to be divided among the producing states, the GNU and the GOSS. (The majority of oil fields are located in the south.) 
  • Security arrangements: an internationally monitored ceasefire was agreed, with the redeployment of northern and SPLA troops. Each side will maintain separate armed forces apart from JIUs. Other armed groups are to choose a side or demobilise.
  • The future of the contested areas such as Abyei (with a separate referendum in 2011), Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile.

In March 2005, the Council created UNMIS to support implementation of the CPA, assist with the return of refugees and internally displaced persons, conduct disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR), and protect civilians in imminent danger.

The GNU’s inauguration and the enactment of the constitution in July 2005 marked the beginning of the interim period. The NCP retained 15 ministries (including energy, interior and defence) and the SPLM, eight. Additional appointments were made in October 2006 under the Darfur Peace Agreement, and more are expected for the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement.
 
Implementation of the CPA is lagging and faces considerable difficulties in:

  • setting up key commissions and related legislation, especially involving elections, land, political parties, national security and human rights;
  • progress with victims’ compensation, new oil contracts and disbursements under multi-donor trust funds, especially in the south;
  • redeploying forces and establishing JIUs and DDR commissions; and
  • following up on the Abyei boundary issue.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1714 (6 October 2006) extended UNMIS until 30 April 2007.
  • S/RES/1706 (31 August 2006) set a mandate for UNMIS in Darfur.
  • S/RES/1590 (24 March 2005) established UNMIS.
  • S/RES/1574 (19 November 2004) was adopted in Nairobi and expressed support for the Sudanese peace processes.
 Selected Secretary-General’s Report
  • S/2006/728 (12 September 2006) was the latest quarterly report on Sudan.
 Other
  • S/2005/78 (8 February 2005) contains the CPA.

Historical Background

 14 October 2006 The Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement was signed.
 5 May 2006 The Darfur Peace Agreement was signed.
 September 2005 The Council of Ministers was formed.
 31 August 2005 The new National Legislature convened.
 11 August 2005 Salva Kiir was sworn in as vice president after the death of John Garang.
 9 July 2005 The GNU was inaugurated.
 24 March 2005 UNMIS was established.
 9 January 2005 The CPA was signed.
 19 November 2004 The Council met in Nairobi to express support for the north-south peace process.

Other Relevant Facts

UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission
 Jan Pronk (Netherlands)
 UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost
  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 27,300 military and approximately 6,015 police personnel
  • Strength as of 30 November 2006: 9,343 military and 680 police
  • Key troop contributors: Bangladesh, India and Pakistan
  • Cost: 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 $1,126.30 million (excludes Darfur)
 UNMIS: Duration
 24 March 2005 to present, mandate expires 30 April 2007

Useful Additional Sources

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