December 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2006
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in our November Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs in this issue.  However, other interesting Council developments in November included:

  • Uganda: The Council issued a presidential statement on 16 November acknowledging the mediation efforts of southern Sudan’s government in the Juba peace talks and encouraged Uganda and the LRA to commit to a long-term and peaceful solution. The Council demanded the release of women, children and non-combatants as required by resolution 1612.  The Council also called on member states to ensure that serious violators of human rights and international humanitarian law are brought to justice. (S/PRST/2006/45)
  • Myanmar: Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari briefed the Council on 27 November on his recent visit to Myanmar.  At press time, a US-sponsored resolution on Myanmar was being drafted with the possibility of being tabled in the coming weeks.
  • Middle East: A Qatar-sponsored Security Council draft resolution on Israeli military actions in Gaza was vetoed by the US on 11 November. (S/2006/878). In an emergency session on 17 November the General Assembly adopted a similar resolution, also introduced by Qatar, which called on the Secretary-General to send a fact-finding mission to Gaza.
  • Afghanistan: A Council delegation led by Ambassador Kenzo Oshima of Japan visited Afghanistan from 11-16 November and the Council was briefed on 22 November.  The Council issued a press statement indicating that without sustained international support there was no guarantee that Afghanistan would not once again become a failed state.  A report on the mission is being prepared in advance of an expected open meeting on Afghanistan in early December. (SC/8874)
  • Ethiopia/Eritrea: The Council was expected to consider the Secretary-General’s report on the options for the future of UNMEE by the end of November.  However, the EEBC proposed in a letter to the Council president that the Commission conclude its work by demarcating the border on maps and leave it to the parties to put in place the physical markers on the ground at a later date. Ethiopia and Eritrea have both challenged the EEBC’s proposal. (S/2006/905) Given these new developments, it is likely that the Secretary-General’s report will only come out in December for Council consideration early in the month.
  • North Korea: The Sanctions Committee has begun to receive reporting from member states. Lists of banned materials were issued in documents S/2006/814815 and 853.
  • Children and Armed Conflict: The Council issued a presidential statement after its open debate on Children and Armed Conflict on 28 November and briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Radhika Coomaraswamy. The statement condemned the recruitment and use of children in armed conflict and requested mainstreaming child protection in peacekeeping. (S/PRST/2006/48) The Secretary-General’s most recent report on the issue was considered and the monitoring and reporting mechanism was discussed. (S/2006/826)
  • Haiti: The death of two Jordanian MINUSTAH peacekeepers prompted the Council to hold consultations on 16 November.  The Council issued a press statement expressing its condolences and continued support for Haiti and its expectation for peaceful municipal and local elections on 3 December. (SC/8868)
  • Informal Working Group on General Issues of Sanctions: The Working Group was originally expected to present its recommendations on improving the effectiveness of sanctions by the end of November.  However, further amendments are currently under discussion and it is unclear when the recommendations will be presented to the Council.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: the Council extended the mandate of EUFOR to 21 December 2007 in resolution 1722.
  • Nepal: The Secretary-General sent a letter to the Council requesting that it respond positively to Nepal’s request for assistance in support of its peace process by monitoring arms and armed personnel and to help create conditions for free and fair elections.
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