October 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 September 2006
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in our September Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs in this issue.  However, other interesting Council developments in September included:

  • Myanmar: Myanmar was placed as an item on the Council’s agenda after a procedural vote of 10-4 (China, Congo, Qatar and Russia), with one abstention (Tanzania).   The 15 September vote was a result of a letter from the US concerning the deteriorating situation in Myanmar. (S/2006/742)  The Council was scheduled to be briefed on Myanmar in a private meeting on 29 September.
  • Middle East:  The Council held a ministerial-level debate on the Middle East on 21 September.  The meeting was held at the request of the Arab League which proposed that the Council consider the settlement of the Israeli-Arab conflict on all tracks. (SC/8836)
  • DRC: The Council issued a presidential statement on 22 September stressing its commitment to ensuring both a peaceful run-off election and the success of the peace process. (S/PRST/2006/40)  The Council is expected to renew MONUC’s mandate on 29 September.
  • Kosovo: Joachim Rücker, head of UNMIK and the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Kosovo, briefed the Council on 22 September on the latest developments in Kosovo, including the status talks and the need to start planning for the end of UNMIK’s mandate. (SC/8827)  The Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for status talks, Martii Ahtisaari said it was important to achieve a negotiated settlement by year’s end.
  • UN and Regional Organisations: The Council held an open debate on the challenges of cooperation between the UN and regional organisations on 20 September.  A presidential statement was issued emphasising more effective partnerships would be consistent with the Council’s responsibility to maintain international peace and security. (S/PRST/2006/39)
  • Liberia: At press time the Council was expected to renew the UNMIL mandate on 29 September.  The resolution will address the current ninety day suspension of timber sanctions which are not expected to be reinstated given that Liberia passed the required forestry legislation. In his latest report the Secretary-General recommended a year-long mandate and placed a priority on the security arrangements for the Special Court for Sierra Leone. (S/2006/743)
  • Ethiopia/Eritrea : The Council is expected to renew the UNMEE mandate on 29 September. An open question is whether or not it will be another technical rollover with language suggesting a possible future downsizing if no progress is made regarding the border demarcation issue or a six month renewal of the mandate as recommended by the Secretary-General in his last report. (S/2006/749)
  • Côte d’Ivoire: On 14 September the Council adopted resolution 1708 which extended the mandate of the Group of Experts to 15 December 2006.
  • Children and Armed Conflict : The Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict submitted its recommendations on children in the DRC to the Council.  (S/2006/724)
  • Iraq: The Council was briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Iraq, Ashraf Qazi, on 14 September.  At the same meeting US Ambassador John Bolton briefed the Council on behalf of the countries which make up the Multinational Forces in Iraq. (SC/8829
  • Sudan: At press time the Council was expected to renew the mandate of the 1591 Committee’s Panel of Experts on 29 September.