Ethiopia/Eritrea
Expected Council Action
By 15 April, the Council will need to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). A further technical rollover is possible, but a decision to radically change the mandate is not out of the question.
Key Facts
In March, the Council rolled over UNMEE’s mandate for one month after the meeting of the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC) in London on 10 March. The short rollover continues to keep pressure on the parties for the demarcation and the lifting of the restrictions on UNMEE.
The parties agreed to the meeting after much pressure. A further meeting is scheduled for 28 April.
Recent comments from Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi suggest that there has been no real movement. Ethiopia still seems to be attached to its 2004 five-point proposal, which only constituted acceptance “in principle” of the delimitation decision and argued that implementation should be made “in a manner consistent with the promotion of sustainable peace and brotherly ties between the two peoples”.
Eritrea remains radically opposed to any reopening of the delimitation decision or accommodating Ethiopia’s other aspirations. It has not shown any willingness as yet to lift restrictions on UNMEE, despite assertions from the witnesses to the Algiers Agreement and the Council that demarcation would only proceed if the restrictions were lifted.
The issue will be further discussed by the Council with the Secretariat and troop contributors within ongoing contingency planning for changes to UNMEE.
Key Issues
The key issue is whether the parties will move towards compliance with resolution 1640, including moving ahead with the demarcation through support for the EEBC and lifting the restrictions on UNMEE.
The US diplomatic initiative has improved the climate for progress on these issues, but a related question is whether the effort can be sustained sufficiently to move the issues forward.
Council Dynamics
Council members welcomed the EEBC meeting. But there is great frustration with Asmara’s six-month-old restrictions on UNMEE, which flout strong Council demands. This frustration is likely to be matched by equal concern at Prime Minister Meles’ rejection of the EEBC as a forum for finding a solution.
While a further technical rollover of UNMEE is still a possibility, bearing in mind the EEBC meeting in late April, in light of the firmness of the Ethiopian position there will be serious thinking about downsizing the mission if Asmara does not soon begin to signal some flexibility.
A previously popular option was to transfer UNMEE’s Asmara headquarters to Addis Ababa while maintaining troops in the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). But members have been increasingly concerned that this would leave UNMEE vulnerable to further restrictions.
The Council dynamics now seem to be shifting towards the view that, if there is no flexibility from Asmara reasonably soon, UNMEE should be reduced to an observer mission on both sides of the border. The US is expected to strongly support this option.
Through downsizing, Council members would try to curtail Asmara’s strategy of seeking leverage through pressure on UNMEE and would also aim to unlock UNMEE resources in favour of other missions, such as in Côte d’Ivoire.
Some in the Council will warn, however, that there are risks, including that UNMEE would need reinforcements if the demarcation eventually resumes.
Options
In addition to the fundamental options of a further rollover for UNMEE or downsizing, other possibilities include:
-
Sending another small Council mission to the region. This option has already been raised during discussions.
-
Increasing pressure by deciding on a particular downsizing strategy but delaying implementation for a month and firmly signalling that any support for demarcation will be linked to lifting restrictions.
Underlying Problems
Even if the demarcation actually resumes, important challenges (detailed in our 13 March update) would still remain:
-
It is uncertain whether Eritrea will lift the restrictions.
-
The demarcation process could take up to a year.
-
Funds will be required for the EEBC to resume its activities in the field.
In addition to the restrictions, Eritrea has banned a number of NGOs-despite the fact that one-third of its population depends on aid-and moved to increase military conscription. Regular troop movements have been noticed near the TSZ. Concern with the restrictions on UNMEE’s movement increased with arrests of UNMEE national staff and the death of a peacekeeper in early March due to difficulties with medical evacuation created by the restrictions.
| Selected Security Council Resolutions |
|
| Selected Presidential Statements |
|
| Selected Secretary-General’s Reports |
|
| Selected Letters |
|
For historical background please refer to the February 2006 Forecast Report.
| Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Chief of Mission |
| Legwaila Joseph Legwaila (Botswana) |
| Size and Composition of Mission |
|
| Cost |
| Approved budget: 1 July 2005 – 30 June 2006: $185.99 million (gross) |
| Duration |
| 31 July 2000 to present |
Useful Additional Sources
EEBC’s website
