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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to endorse the Afghanistan Compact, a five-year framework for reconstruction to be adopted in early February in London at an international conference co-chaired by the UK, the UN and the Afghan government.

The Council also expects a report of the Secretary-General on the future of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in relation to the Compact and the completion of the Bonn process.  However, discussions on that subject will most likely take place in March, just before UNAMA’s current mandate expires.

Furthermore, the Council expects the quarterly report of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

Key Facts
On 11 September 2001, Al-Qaida attacked targets in the US. After the Taliban refused to give up Usama bin Laden, a US-led coalition attacked Afghanistan. Northern Alliance forces, with support from the coalition, took Kabul on 13 November 2001. The Taliban and Al-Qaida fighters fled. Coalition military operations to capture their leaders and establish security in Afghanistan continue.

With the support from the international community, including the UN, Afghan leaders in December 2001 established, through the Bonn process, a transitional government leading to elections. Subsequently, the Council established UNAMA to assist the government and coordinate UN reconstruction efforts.

Parliamentary elections held in September 2005 marked the end of the Bonn process. The Afghan government, donors and the UN, conscious of the need for sustained support, began work on the proposed Compact, which is a new framework for aid, reconstruction and institution-building. It has a timeline and benchmarks on governance, security, counter-narcotics and reconstruction. The document further mandates that the UN will co-chair an aid coordination mechanism with the Afghan government.

Given the continuing UN role in relation to the Compact, the Secretary-General will recommend a future role for UNAMA to the Council.

The achievements in building political institutions have not been matched by the establishment of security in Afghanistan. The NATO-led ISAF and US-led Operation Enduring Freedom (with 20,000 troops currently deployed) have had some notable successes, but Taliban-led violence appears to be on the rise again. ISAF operates through Provincial Reconstruction Teams, which are civil-military units tasked with extending state authority, providing security and engaging in reconstruction. The US-led operation is a coalition fighting mainly Al-Qaida and the Taliban in the countryside.

The recent intensification in Al-Qaida and Taliban attacks, particularly in the south and east, indicates that the situation in the country is far from secure. US military deaths in 2005 almost doubled from 2004 with the increased use of suicide attacks and explosives by insurgents.

On 8 December, NATO announced that it will send an additional 6,000 troops. This expansion is being done through the phased NATO takeover of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams from the US and the establishment of new ones, starting from the north and west and progressing into the south.

NATO’s projected increase is intended to pave the way for a reduction of 4,000 US military personnel in the US-led operation. It is unclear whether NATO troops will substantively engage in counterinsurgency activities or will continue to focus on peacekeeping and reconstruction. Some NATO members are reluctant to commit troops to ISAF given the security situation.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council will be whether and how it should show commitment to the Compact. The Compact is essentially a reconstruction initiative, outside the scope of the Council’s normal business. It remains to be seen whether some Council members will show reluctance, especially given the fact that this was a situation in which the Council was not intimately involved in the main decisions on international peace and security. The other side of the issue, however, is that since its resolution approving the ISAF presence the Council has had a limited overview of security issues.  Moreover, supporting the Compact would show support for Afghanistan, and there is much sympathy within the UN for helping Afghanistan emerge from a very long and destructive period of violence.

The second issue arises from the fact that Council members are all aware of the challenges posed by the deteriorating security situation, despite efforts by NATO and the US-led operation. This is closely related to Council’s responsibilities on international peace and security and also to the safety of UN personnel. A question may emerge therefore as to whether the Council needs to be more involved in discussion of security issues in Afghanistan.

Council Dynamics
The Council has refrained from taking a leading role in addressing the security situation in Afghanistan, leaving this to the operations led by the US and NATO. This has always been the preferred position of the US, reflecting its massive effort to counter the Taliban and Al-Qaida in response to the 11 September 2001 attacks.

Given its past reluctance to take up security issues in Afghanistan, the Council in this case is focusing, somewhat unusually, on the UN’s role in managing reconstruction. Council members generally support a central role for the UN in helping the Afghan government coordinate international assistance. However, Council members are still formulating positions on UNAMA’s future mandate and size.  The safety of UN staff will be a major factor in that regard.

Options
In addition to welcoming the new Compact, probably in a presidential statement, Council members may discuss other options, such as:

• Including additional language on security aspects;
• the possibility that the Peacebuilding Commission might take on Afghanistan; and
• asking for more detailed reporting on the situation and the operations of ISAF.

Underlying Problems
In resolution 1386 of 20 December 2001, the Council authorised ISAF to provide security only in Kabul. Resolution 1510 of 13 October 2003 expanded ISAF’s mandate to provide security and support for reconstruction and stabilisation activities in the Afghan countryside.

ISAF’s command initially rotated among concerned nations, until NATO took over the operation in August 2003. This was NATO’s first mission outside Europe.

NATO has achieved varying degrees of success in improving security across the country, with reports that some of its forces are reluctant to engage insurgents directly. The teams have regularly been targeted by insurgents, particularly the Taliban, and one such attack resulted in the death of three Canadian team members in mid January.

In response to the insurgency mounted by Al-Qaida and the Taliban, the US has reportedly engaged in cross-border attacks on Pakistani soil. A recent attack against an Al-Qaida target inside Pakistan in January killed a number of civilians. In Pakistan, the attack prompted a public outcry against the US and led to a formal complaint from the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Afghanistan’s reconstruction also remains plagued by warlords resistant to relinquishing their private militias.  Some of these militia leaders secured seats in the September parliamentary elections.

Other challenges come from opium cultivation, corruption and lack of state authority across the countryside. The drug trade remains one of the greatest threats to the rule of law and effective governance, and is intimately connected to the present cross-border insurgency. It is estimated that around three million Afghan refugees live in Pakistan, with another 900,000 in Iran, although there have been considerable successes in increasing the number of refugees returning to Afghanistan.

UN Documents

Historical Background

Other Relevant Facts 

Useful Additional Sources

• UNAMA’s website: http://www.unama-afg.org/
• ISAF’s website: http://www.afnorth.nato.int/ISAF/index.htm

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