Ethiopia/Eritrea
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The Council is expected to adopt on 15 May a technical rollover of the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). The rollover is currently expected to be limited to two weeks.
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Another technical rollover of the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) now seems unlikely. The Council gave the parties a "last chance" in resolution 1670, which extended UNMEE until 15 May, and a major review of the size and mandate of UNMEE now seems inevitable.
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Tomorrow, the Council is set to adopt a technical rollover of the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) until 15 May. The resolution will also reiterate the demands from resolution 1640.
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By 15 April, the Council will need to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). A further technical rollover is possible, but a decision to radically change the mandate is not out of the question.
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The Council will renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) by mid-March. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether a technical rollover will be needed, or whether there will be radical changes to UNMEE's size and mandate. Much now depends on the outcome of the US diplomatic initiative.
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The Council has scheduled consultations on the situation in Ethiopia and Eritrea tomorrow, 8 February 2006. The US delegation is expected to report on the diplomatic initiative the US has undertaken to try to defuse the recent crisis in the region.
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The 30-day hold on Council action to facilitate a US diplomatic initiative on the Ethiopia-Eritrea crisis ends on 9 February. At the time of writing, it seems possible that some additional time will be necessary.
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We expect that the Council will revisit the situation in December upon receipt of the report of the Secretary-General. Should Eritrea fail to lift the restrictions against UNMEE and both parties fail to redeploy troops, we expect that the Council will seriously consider sanctions under Article 41 of the Charter, including possibly revamping the arms embargo.
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The Council adopted Resolution 1640 on 23 November, demanding that Eritrea lifts the restrictions imposed against the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) and that both parties redeploy their troops. The Secretary-General is expected to report on the parties' compliance in December.
