Chad/CAR
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The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT), which expires on 25 September.
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In July, the Council is expected to discuss the forthcoming report of the Secretary-General on the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT). The report is due by early July and a Secretariat briefing is likely.
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A Council mission will visit Chad and Sudan in early June. Topics for discussion include: the countries’ security and political situation; Chad-Sudan relations; and the deployment of the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT) and of the EU Force (EUFOR, the European military force deployed pursuant a Security Council authorisation under resolution 1778).
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In early June, a Council mission will visit Sudan and Chad. Discussions are likely to include:the north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA);the recent violence, prospects for a cessation of hostilities and a peace process in Darfur;deployment of the UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID); and Chad-Sudan relations and the conflicts in both countries.
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Consultations on Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) are expected in April. Members now expect by early April the Secretary-General’s progress report on the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT). A statement is possible, particularly if the security situation deteriorates further. MINURCAT’s mandate expires on 25 September.
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The Council is expected to pay very close attention to developments in Chad and the region as the political-security crisis unfolds. Consultations are possible, especially should the situation deteriorate, but at press time it seemed unlikely that proposals for Council action would emerge in March.
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Council members are expected to follow closely in January the situation in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) as well as progress with the deployment of the EU protection force and the UN Mission in the region (MINURCAT). The report of the Secretary-General was published on 17 December.
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Council members seem ready to adopt a draft resolution to establish a UN operation in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) and to authorise an EU military operation to provide security for civilians at risk and UN personnel. At press time, the draft was subject to final review in capitals.
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The Council has signalled it is ready to authorise a multidimensional UN operation in eastern Chad and northeastern Central African Republic (CAR) and an EU military operation to provide security for civilians at risk and for UN personnel. This would be subject to agreement on details by the EU, the UN and Chad, but it is unclear whether this process can proceed quickly enough for a Council resolution in September.
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The report of the Secretary-General with revised recommendations for peacekeeping in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) should be available to the Council by the beginning of August.
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The improvements in the overall atmosphere in the region, as a result of the progress between Sudan and the UN as well as the AU over Darfur may encourage the Council to revisit the issue of international deployments in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR).
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Members expect the results of the Secretariat's consultations with Chad seeking consent to deploy a proposed UN peacekeeping operation in eastern Chad and in the Central African Republic (CAR). At press time, a briefing by Assistant Secretary-General Hédi Annabi on progress with consultations had been scheduled for 31 May.
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The Council is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach while the Secretariat and some Council members try to engage Chad about consent for the proposed UN peacekeeping operation. A Secretariat team may visit Chad in May. However, the momentum seems to have waned and agreement is unlikely anytime soon.
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The Council is expected to continue discussions of the proposed UN operation in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR). Members seem to have adopted a wait-and-see approach for the time being, as Chad and the Secretariat are expected to consult with a view to agreement on the proposed operation's size and structure.
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Discussions on a robust protection force for eastern Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) will continue. The level of momentum suggests a final decision will be reached in March.
