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Liberia

Expected Council Action
The Council expects to receive a report from the Secretary-General on the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) in August on progress regarding benchmarks for the mission drawdown and including recommendations on possible reductions in UNMIL’s military and police component. The Council is expected to start discussions, most likely at the level of experts, and take a decision by 30 September when UNMIL’s mandate expires.

Recent Developments
On 1 July, Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, on the sidelines of the AU summit, reportedly asked the UN to extend the timeline for the drawdown of UNMIL put forward in the Secretary-General’s August 2007 report. That report had proposed specific benchmarks to measure progress, including completing basic training of 3,500 Liberian national police personnel, finalising the national security strategy, and training and bringing the first and second Armed Forces of Liberia battalions to operational readiness.

In March 2008, the Secretary-General reported on progress achieved in implementing that plan. He noted that the withdrawal of 2,450 military troops (members of Bangladeshi, Ghanaian, Namibian, Nigerian and Senegalese contingents) would be achieved by 30 September and that the gradual drawdown of UNMIL’s police component was also set to take place as planned starting in April. However, the Secretary-General said that it was premature at that point to consider arrangements for UNMIL’s final withdrawal. He has consistently argued that the drawdown should take into account the Liberian government’s ability to effectively control national security.

On 18 June 2008, the Council adopted resolution 1819 renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts on Liberia sanctions until 20 December following a briefing on 16 June by the Sanctions Committee Chairman, Ambassador Giadalla Azuz Ettalhi of Libya, on the Panel’s report. The Council requested the Panel to report again by 1 December.

On 12 June, the Liberia Sanctions Committee removed Montgomery Dolo, former commander of Liberia’s Anti-Terrorist Unit, from the list of individuals subject to its travel ban. This is the fourth instance of “delisting” undertaken by the Committee, following the removal from the list of Grace Minor, in November 2007, Gerald Cooper in March and four other individuals—Gabriel Doe, Khalid Eldine, Wesseh Dennis and Zarr Koffi—in May.

The Special Court for Sierra Leone trying former Liberian President Taylor in The Hague has now heard over thirty prosecution witnesses. The prosecution estimates that that the trial will conclude within a year. The prosecution requires four more months to complete its case and the defence another four months to present its response.

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Liberia (TRC), whose mandate includes bringing to light human rights abuses committed during the Liberian civil war and adopting procedures to address the experiences of women, children and vulnerable groups, held public hearings on 9 June in Minnesota, US, focusing on the experience of Liberians in the diaspora. (The hearings in Minnesota reportedly represented the first time that citizens in the diaspora have been sought systematically by any truth commission to participate in the process of national healing.) In a related development, the founder of the rebel group Independent National Patriotic Front of Liberia, Prince Johnson, whose forces captured and killed former Liberian President Samuel Doe at the early stages of the protracted conflict is reportedly set to appear before the TRC in August, in Monrovia.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is likely to be finding the right balance between the previous drawdown timetable and the continuing concerns that UNMIL not be reduced too quickly. A related issue is the need to establish a transition from a peacekeeping focus to peace building.

Options
Options for the Council include:

• starting early discussions at the expert level on ways to begin enhanced peacebuilding activities under the UNMIL mission framework (perhaps enhancing civilian posts as military strength is reduced) and developing options for more effective oversight by member states as a lead-in to eventual assumption of responsibility of the Peacebuilding Commission (this could include a formal or informal ad hoc Council Working Group);
• simply endorsing the Secretary-General’s recommendations; and
• adopting a more cautious approach and extending UNMIL’s current mandate only for six months thereby allowing for more in-depth discussion of downsizing the mission to be deferred until early 2009.

Council Dynamics
The consensus in the Council is that in principle a drawdown should continue. However, some differences of opinion remain. Some European members stress the need to explore redistribution of peacekeeping resources to other conflicts in Africa and seem to favour a further acceleration of the drawdown. Other countries, particularly the African members, emphasise the need for a more cautious approach calibrated to developments on the ground.

Underlying Problems
Logistical challenges continue to confront the security sector reforms needed to strengthen Liberia’s fragile stability. These include a lack of infrastructure, equipment and funds. High levels of youth unemployment, including ex-combatants, also pose a threat to stability, particularly in the subregional context of riots by former combatants in Côte d’Ivoire over insufficient or delayed compensation in June. The incidence of sexual violence also remains high, a problem compounded by deficiencies in the judicial and correctional systems.

Other Relevant Facts

Full forecast

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