January 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 21 December 2007
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
ASIA

Nepal

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to extend the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) before it expires on 23 January. Ian Martin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Nepal, will brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest UNMIN report. 

Key Recent Developments
On 19 December, media reports in Nepal indicated that the Nepalese government submitted a formal request to the Secretary-General for a six-month extension of UNMIN’s mandate. UNMIN was set up in January 2007 for one year. However, because the constituent assembly elections have been postponed until 2008, a key part of its mandate requiring it to provide technical support for the “planning…and conduct of the election of a constituent assembly” is still outstanding. (The constituent assembly will be charged with rewriting Nepal’s constitution.)

On 5 October, the constituent assembly elections, set for 22 November and already postponed from June, were deferred for an indefinite period after the Maoists walked out of the government demanding that the monarchy be abolished ahead of the elections and insisting that the electoral system be changed to a fully proportional one. At the time of writing, the government and the Maoists were close to agreement on holding the elections in mid-April. The Secretary-General expressed disappointment at the postponement and said that Nepal’s people “deserve their opportunity to express their political aspirations.” India, the EU and the US all voiced concern at the repeated postponement of elections, with India stating that it was eroding Nepal’s credibility.

Wider discontent within Nepal, particularly among the Madhesi community continued. (The Madhesi, who occupy the Terai plains in the south, feel they have been sidelined in favour of Nepal’s more populated north and are demanding greater autonomy, more seats in the national legislature and a guaranteed number of representatives in the administration.) On 10 December, a Madhesi minister and three deputies resigned over the government’s failure to stop violence in the south. In early October, general strikes were called by various ethnic rights groups. These crippled economic activity in southeastern Nepal, and curfews were imposed.

Relations between the government and the Maoists remained tense. In addition to their demands about the monarchy and proportional representation, the Maoists seem to be demanding that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) be merged with Nepal’s national army. In addition, the Maoists are seeking information about 1,000 people who disappeared during the insurgency and also called for the dissolution of the recently formed Peace and Reconstruction Ministry as further pre-conditions for holding the constituent assembly elections.

On 6 December, an EU delegation (made up of Portugal, as current president, Slovenia as the next president and the European Commission) stressed the importance of constituent assembly elections to the success of the peace process and the need for peace to be accompanied by economic development. It warned that further delay would erode the credibility of democratic transformation and legitimacy in Nepal and indicated that the EU was ready to send an election-observer mission to Nepal in order to support this process. The EU, Nepal’s largest aid donor, has also said that it would support Nepal’s request for an extension of UNMIN’s mandate.

At the time of writing, UNMIN was completing the second phase of registration of Maoist combatants which focused on determining the age and recruitment date to exclude those under 18 years and recruited after the ceasefire. Although the figures have not been formally released, there are indications that some PLA soldiers would not pass verification. 

Options
The Council’s options for UNMIN’s renewal will be constrained by Nepal’s formal request. Options include the following.

  • Renewing UNMIN for six months. (This is likely if the elections have been set for March or April by the time the Council considers UNMIN’s mandate extension.)
  • Renewing UNMIN for six months but with provisions for possible extension if it seems elections may not be held before June 2008.
  • Not renewing UNMIN. (This seems unlikely as most members feel that UNMIN should remain despite the setbacks.)

Options in considering UNMIN’s mandate include:

  • keeping the same mandate;
  • formally expanding it to give UNMIN a wider role to assist in the peace process; and
  • encouraging the Secretary-General’s Special Representative to support the reconciliation of the parties and reinforce discussions on security sector reform within the existing mandate.

Another option is to ask the Secretary-General to initiate a review of the situation and to come forward with proposals to reenergise the peace process and implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and other agreements with the parties with the aim of agreeing on a roadmap toward elections and beyond.

Key Issues
The key issue is ensuring that the peace process is not derailed. Some observers believe that the international community has failed to fully comprehend the underlying tensions and subtleties of the political situation in Nepal.

A related issue is whether the Maoists and the seven-party alliance can put aside their differences and move forward, with compromise solutions to the most recent demands.

Another issue is to avoid further postponement. Repeated delays seem to be having adverse impact on the credibility of the government.

A significant new issue is the potential for instability as a result of discontent in marginalised ethnic groups in the south. (The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released a report on 12 December which said that most of the 130 civilians killed from January to October 2007 came from the Terai region.)

Another key issue is the increasing criticism of UNMIN from both the government and Maoists in Nepal. Maoists accuse UNMIN of exceeding its mandate and interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs. The government seems reluctant about expanding UNMIN’s mandate. The local press has been running critical articles for some months.

A related question is how UNMIN could be more effective without expanding its mandate. In his report in October, the Secretary-General said that the mandate’s limited focus constrained UNMIN’s ability to “adequately assist the overall management of the peace process” and that the UN stands ready to offer all necessary assistance. Over the last few months, Martin has indicated that his team is willing to play a more active role in the peace process although he has emphasised that UNMIN will remain within its mandate.

A longer-term issue is the military cantonments. UNMIN has been unable to stop a number of illegal exits. Another concern is the number of child soldiers who remain in the cantonments. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed last November asked for the immediate release of minors who had been associated with a fighting force, and provided for their rehabilitation and reintegration. OHCHR said in November that the PLA was forcing some child soldiers who had voluntarily left the camps to return. 

Council and Wider Dynamics
When UNMIN was being set up most Council members, based on the relatively optimistic information available at the time, accepted that it could be a focused mission of limited duration. However, now with the elections twice postponed and increasing understanding of the complexity of the situation and its dynamic nature, there is acknowledgement that UNMIN should continue for at least a further six months. However, members are more divided over how long UNMIN should remain in Nepal after the elections and how much the UN should try to do to help.

China and India take an active interest in this issue. In an early December visit to Nepal, a high-level delegation from the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee expressed concern over the “deepening political crisis” and stressed the need to push ahead with the peace process. While India is not a member of the Council, it has a close relationship with Nepal and has been a significant player behind the scenes. India has reinforced its support for the peace process through recent diplomatic visits and public statements in the Indian media. Both China and India have indicated that they do not want to see a prolonged UN presence on their borders. 

Underlying Problems
In a report released in mid-December, OHCHR said that Nepal risked returning to violence if human rights abusers are not brought to justice and criminal activities are not controlled. The report indicated that human rights had been marginalised and subordinated to political considerations in the peace process. 

Sign up for SCR emails
UN Documents

Security Council Resolution

S/RES/1740 (23 January 2007) established UNMIN for 12 months.

Secretary General’s Reports

S/2007/612 (18 October 2007) was the last report of the Secretary-General on the request of Nepal for UN assistance in support of its peace process.

Presidential Statements

S/PRST/2006/49 (1 December 2006) expressed support for the Secretary-General’s intention to send a technical assessment team to Nepal and noted that the Council would await formal proposals.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Ian Martin (UK)

Size and Composition

881 staff (at end of September 2007)

Duration

23 January 2007 to 23 January 2008

Cost

$88.8 million

Useful Additional Sources
Human Rights in Nepal One Year After The Comprehensive Peace Agreement, OHCHR, December 2007

Full forecast

Subscribe to receive SCR publications