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Security Council Report
Monthly Forecast October 2008

Welcome to our October Forecast Report, posted on 29 September 2008.  Ambassador Zhang Yesui of China will be the Council president.  Our OVERVIEW highlights issues likely to arise.


Overview for October Notable Dates for October Status Update
Council Matters Awaiting Action Georgia Sudan
Kosovo Haiti Nepal
Somalia DPRK Lebanon
Afghanistan Côte d'Ivoire Iraq (Oil for Food)
Security Council Elections 2008

 

Full Forecast in PDF Format • in Word Format (posted on 29 September 2008)

WHAT IS SCHEDULED IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL TODAYUN JOURNAL
SECURITY COUNCIL CALENDAR FOR OCTOBER  UN SECRETARIAT LIST OF ISSUES FOR OCTOBER

 

Please visit our website regularly to access all our Reports or subscribe to receive notification by email.

NOTABLE DATES for October 

October 2008 Reports for Consideration
21 September

Panel of Experts report on Darfur S/RES/1779

22 September

SG UNAMA (Afghanistan) report S/RES/1806

by 30 September 

SG UNOGBIS (Guinea-Bissau) report S/RES/1580

by 30 September SG UNMIK (Kosovo) report S/RES/1244
by 30 September SG UNAMID (Darfur) report S/RES/1828
by 15 October SG MONUC (DRC) oral report  S/RES/1794
15 October Côte d'Ivoire Group of Experts report S/RES/1782
15 October SG UNOCI (Côte d'Ivoire) report S/RES/1826
by mid-October SG UNOMIG (Georgia) report S/RES/1808
by mid-October SG UNMIS (Sudan) report S/RES/1812
October SG report on resolution 1325 (Women, Peace and Security) S/PRST/2007/40

21 October

SG report on resolution 1559  (Lebanon) S/PRST/2004/36
28 October SG report on resolution 1701 (Lebanon) S/RES/1773
by 31 October SG UNMIN (Nepal) report S/RES/1825
October/early November SG Somalia report S/PRST/2001/30
October 2008 Mandates Expire

15 October

MINUSTAH (Haiti) S/RES/1780

15 October

UNOMIG (Georgia) S/RES/1808

15 October

Sudan Panel of Experts S/RES/1779

31 October Côte d'Ivoire Group of Experts and sanctions S/RES/1782
Also:

Please see our full page of Notable Dates for October for complete details and other important dates.

 

UPDATES


19 September 2008: Update Report on Mediation and Settlement of Disputes:     On 23 September the Security Council will hold a high level meeting on the topic Mediation and Settlement of Disputes. The meeting, which will not be an open debate with participation by non-Council members, will be presided over by the President of Burkina Faso and current Chairperson of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Blaise Campaoré.  A presidential statement is a possible outcome. The key issue for the Council members is whether they will be able to articulate a collective vision of the role of the Council in international mediation efforts in conflict situations. Report in  Web Format • Word FormatPDF Format



16 September 2008:  Special Research Report "Anatomy of a Sanctions Regime: Failed Efforts to Implement Sanctions in Somalia"   The longest-running Council sanctions regime still in existence relates to Somalia. It now dates back 16 years. While all sanctions regimes present challenges, the one in Somalia has faced more difficulties than most. This Special Research Report examines these difficulties. It finds that sanctions’ effectiveness has been hindered by weaknesses in design, unrealistic expectations, and implausible reliance on neighboring countries enforcing the sanctions. The Council’s own lack of political will has also been a major factor at many stages during the 16 year history. At press time, the Council was discussing a possible new sanctions resolution. It remains to be seen whether any new measures will be adopted or whether they will go beyond simply creating a new formal layer of sanctions but leaving effective implementation to subsequent decisions. Report in Web Format • Word FormatPDF Format

 

10 September 2008:  Update Report on Myanmar:  The Council is expected to receive a briefing on 11 September in a closed meeting from Ibrahim Gambari, the Secretary-General’s Special Advisor on Myanmar. Gambari recently visited Myanmar from 18-23 August 2008. This is his first visit since the May national referendum which ratified the draft constitution. It is unlikely that the Council will take any formal action at the meeting. However, members are expecting that the briefing could help steer future action.  Report in  Web Format •  Word FormatPDF Format



4 September 2008:  Special Research Report "Cyprus: New hope after 45 years on the Security Council agenda"
The conflict in Cyprus has been on the Security Council agenda since 1963. After the failure in 2004 of a comprehensive peace plan for the reunification of Cyprus, there was a long delay in attempting to restart negotiations. Full-fledged negotiations between the Greek Cypriot leader Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat finally resumed on 3 September 2008, and were warmly welcomed by the Council in a presidential statement (S/PRST/2008/34) on 4 September. There now seems to be a sense of optimism and hope that the parties, with assistance from the UN, can at last reach a sustainable solution. This Special Research Report attempts to provide for Council members, and other interested parties, a short history of the 45 years of Council involvement in the Cyprus issue.  Report in Web Format • Word FormatPDF Format 


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