January 2018 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 December 2017
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Overview

    Kazakhstan will have the presidency in January. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update since our December Forecast. Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Demise of the JIM

    Six draft resolutions were vetoed in 2017, the most since 1988, and five of them focused on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) of the OPCW and the UN was the centerpiece of the Security Council’s efforts to determine responsibility for the use of chemical weapons in Syria. It was established through resolution 2235 on 7 August 2015, largely a result of negotiations between the US and Russia. Three consecutive vetoes by Russia led to its termination at the end of 2017, dismantling what had been one of the rare examples of Council action on the Syria file. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In January, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix will brief the Council on the latest MONUSCO report and on recent developments in the country. Read more

  • UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel

    In January 2018, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative and head of UNOWAS, will brief the Council on recent developments and the semi-annual UNOWAS report. Read more

  • Syria

    In January 2018, the Council expects to receive the monthly briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria and on chemical weapons. Read more

  • Colombia

    In January 2018, the Council will receive a briefing from Special Representative Jean Arnault on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. Consultations will follow the briefing.  Assuming that the government of Colombia and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) decide to renew their temporary, bilateral ceasefire, the Council will most likely renew the part of the mission’s mandate dealing with monitoring and verification of this ceasefire. This aspect of the mission’s mandate expires on 9 January 2018. The overall mandate of the Verification Mission expires on 26 September 2018. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In January 2018, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the 60-day report of the Secretary-General on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) and the written assessment from the Secretary-General and the chairperson of the AU Commission on the reconfiguration of UNAMID, as requested in resolution 2363. The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 June 2018. Read more

  • Libya

    In January 2018, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, followed by consultations. Read more

  • UNRCCA (Central Asia)

    In January 2018, the Special Representative and head of UNRCCA Natalia Gherman, will brief Council members in consultations on key regional issues, including the threat of terrorism and extremism, the impact of the situation in Afghanistan, drug trafficking, trans-boundary water management, and tensions linked to border-related disputes.  Read more

  • Afghanistan and Central Asia as a Model to link Security and Development

    The January 2018 Council President Kazakhstan will hold a ministerial-level debate on the threats to international peace and security focusing on the topic: “Building Regional Partnership in Afghanistan and Central Asia as a Model to Link Security and Development”. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Kairat Abdrakhmanov will chair the debate, and Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief. Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Salahuddin Rabbani will address the Council. The Council is expected to adopt a presidential statement.  Read more

  • Mali

    In January 2018, the Council expects to receive a briefing on Mali from Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix, followed by consultations. Read more

  • Somalia

    In January 2018, the Council expects to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the situation in Somalia. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In January 2018, the Council is expected to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s monthly assessment of the deployment and future requirements of the Regional Protection Force (RPF) and impediments to the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) in carrying out its mandate. The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 March 2018. Read more

  • Israel/Palestine

    In January 2018, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate under the agenda item “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”, which will focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Read more

  • Cyprus

    In January 2018, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months, ahead of its 31 January expiry. Elizabeth Spehar, Special Representative and head of UNFICYP, is expected to brief on the latest UNFICYP report.  Read more

Download Complete Forecast: PDF