October 2017 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  France has the presidency in October. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our September Forecast Read more

• In Hindsight: Note 507

  Following weeks of negotiations over most of the summer, the Council reached agreement on 30 August on a new version of the compendium of its working methods, commonly referred to as “Note 507”. The document was elaborated under the leadership of Japan, in its capacity as chair of the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions, the venue for most discussions regarding the Council’s working methods. Read more

• Peacekeeping Operations: Strategic Force Generation

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a debate at the initiative of France and the UK on strategic force generation in peacekeeping operations. Expected briefers will include Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, and a representative from a major troop-contributing country. No outcome is anticipated. Read more

• Sahel

  In October, the Council plans to undertake a visiting mission to Mali, Mauritania and Burkina Faso to assess the operationalisation of the joint force of the G5 Sahel, or FC-G5S. The mission will be co-led by Ethiopia, France and Italy. Upon returning to New York, the Council expects to hold a ministerial-level meeting to discuss ways the international community can support the FC-G5S. At the meeting, the Council will receive a briefing from Secretary-General António Guterres and discuss his report on the activities of the FC-G5S, including the challenges encountered in its operationalisation and possible measures for further consideration. The discussion will be chaired by Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In October, the Department of Peacekeeping Operations will brief Council members in consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). No outcome is expected. Read more

• Syria

  In October, Council members expect to receive the monthly briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria and on chemical weapons. Read more

• Libya

  The Council is expected to renew the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking. The Council is also likely to express its support to the action plan presented by the Secretary-General in late September and follow closely the UN efforts to jumpstart the political process in Libya. Read more

• Mali

  In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, followed by consultations. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In October, the Council will be briefed on several reports on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that are due by the end of September. The Council will also be briefed on the strategic review of MONUSCO requested in resolution 2348 of 31 March.  Read more

• Haiti

  In October, the Council will receive a report of the Secretary-General and hold a debate on Haiti. The Council, through resolution 2350, decided unanimously on 13 April to phase out the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), draw down its military component by 15 October, and replace the mission with a new entity, the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH). MINUSTAH’s mandate expires on 15 October and MINUJUSTH begins operating on 16 October. Read more

• Famine

  In keeping with the Security Council’s August presidential statement on famine, a Secretariat official  is expected to provide in October “an oral briefing…on country-specific impediments to an effective response to the risk of famine in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and northeast Nigeria and to make specific recommendations on how to address these impediments”. No immediate Council outcome is anticipated. Read more

• Burundi

  In October, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Michel Kafando, will brief the Council on the situation in Burundi. Read more

• South Sudan

  In October, Security Council members expect to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s monthly assessment of the deployment and future requirements of the Regional Protection Force (RPF) and impediments to the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) in carrying out its mandate.  The briefing will be followed by consultations.  Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. This briefing has always been held in consultations. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, the Council will receive a briefing in consultations on Western Sahara. It will be the second of the Secretary-General’s semi-annual briefings on the situation in Western Sahara this year. While at press time the briefers had not yet been confirmed, typically the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and the Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General conduct the briefing. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In October, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix will brief the Council on the latest UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) report. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In October, Council members are expected to be briefed on the second of two reports requested in resolution 2352 on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). Members will also be briefed on the Secretary-General’s report on the status of the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), also requested in resolution 2352. Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan Nicholas Haysom will brief on Sudan/South Sudan issues as well during the month. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In October, the Security Council will hold its annual debate on women, peace and security and the Secretary-General’s annual report, due on 1 October. France, as president of the Council in October, is expected to circulate a concept note ahead of the debate. At press time, a resolution was a possible outcome. Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict

  In October, the Council will hold an open debate to discuss the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict. France, the president for October, has indicated an interest in also having a discussion during the meeting on the Paris Principles and Commitments to protect children from unlawful recruitment or use by armed forces and groups. A presidential statement, which would be drafted by Sweden, the penholder and chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, is a possible outcome. At press time, the annual report had not yet been published. Secretary-General António Guterres, Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba and a civil society representative are expected to speak. Read more