March 2017 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 February 2017
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In March, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. The chair of the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Koro Bessho (Japan), may also brief.

Key Recent Developments

The war in Yemen has continued amidst a worsening humanitarian crisis and stalled efforts to resume political talks. The conflict pits the Houthis, a Zaydi Shiite rebel group, and forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh against the Yemeni government and the Saudi Arabia-led coalition.

Towards the end of January, the Coalition and the Yemeni government announced the capture of the Red Sea coastal city of al-Mokha. Officials have said that the offensive will next advance on Hodeidah, Yemen’s main port, which has been the primary entry point for humanitarian aid and food and fuel supplies going to Houthi-controlled areas.

On 29 January, the US conducted a raid on a compound of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in the village of Yakla in al-Bayda province—the first military operation authorised under the new administration of President Donald Trump. One US commando was killed and a US military aircraft was destroyed. According to Yemeni officials, 15 women and children were killed in addition to several AQAP militants. Yemeni officials initially condemned the raid and later stressed that any counter-terrorism operations should continue to be carried out in consultation with authorities.

On 1 February, the US issued a strongly-worded statement on Iran, which included a warning to the country over its alleged support of the Houthis. The statement followed an attack by the Houthis on a Saudi ship using “suicide boats”. The US subsequently deployed to Yemeni waters the USS Cole, which in October 2000 had been attacked by Al-Qaida in Aden port, killing 17 sailors. Referring to the Houthi attack on the Saudi vessel and its alleged support from Iran, the Yemeni government requested in a 17 February letter that the Council designate the Houthis as a terrorist organisation.

Efforts to resume peace talks continued to flounder. The Special Envoy briefed the Council for the first time in nearly three months on 26 January, highlighting his frustration that the Houthis and Saleh’s party, the General People’s Congress, had not developed proposals for security arrangements—a reference to the withdrawal of their forces from Hodeidah, Sana’a and Taiz—despite their announced willingness to resume talks on the basis of the roadmap he proposed in October. The Special Envoy described Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s continued criticism of the UN proposals as undermining confidence in the peace process.

In a 10 February letter, the Houthis requested Secretary-General António Guterres to replace the Special Envoy, claiming his handling of the political process was not balanced. During a 12 February press conference in Riyadh, Guterres said the Special Envoy had his “full support”. On 16 February, foreign ministers of the Quad—comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the UK and the US—–met with Oman’s foreign minister and the Special Envoy in Bonn. No readout from the meeting was made available.

Yemen’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. Thirty thousand people were reported as fleeing al-Mokha during the fight for the city, adding to the 2 million people already displaced. During the Council’s 26 January briefing, OCHA head Stephen O’Brien warned of the possibility of famine in 2017. He highlighted the failure of all parties to protect civilians and noted that more than two-thirds of the damage to infrastructure has been from airstrikes. O’Brien flagged the Coalition’s refusal to allow the World Food Programme to deliver recently procured cranes to Hodiedah to improve the port’s capacity, which has been greatly reduced since its cranes were destroyed by airstrikes in 2015.

Sanctions-Related Developments

The 2140 Sanctions Committee met on 27 January to discuss the final report of the Yemen Panel of Experts. Members expressed broad support for the Panel’s work. Egypt reiterated its position from last year that the Panel did not have the mandate to report on possible violations committed by member states but only “individuals and entities” according to resolution 2140; a view not shared by other members. On 23 February, the Council adopted resolution 2342 renewing the Yemen sanctions for an additional year. Members refrained from proposing new elements to the resolution, which helped to avoid negotiations.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 10 February, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights released a statement expressing concern about reports that civilians had been trapped and targeted in fighting during the preceding two weeks in al-Mokha. The reports indicated that civilians were caught between warring parties who gave them opposite instructions on whether to leave their homes and evacuate, that families attempting to flee their houses were shot at by Houthi-affiliated snipers and that civilians were also killed by airstrikes, with one incident on 22 January killing 11 people and wounding four. The High Commissioner warned that there “are real fears that the situation will repeat itself” in Hodiedah. He noted that airstrikes on the port city “are already intensifying”.

Key Issues

The key issue is how the Council can support efforts to achieve a cessation of hostilities and resume peace talks.

An ongoing concern is the humanitarian crisis, including issues of humanitarian access and violations of international humanitarian law.

Another issue is the growing threat of AQAP and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant as a result of the vacuum created by the war.

Options

The Council could consider a new resolution on Yemen, as the UK had said it would propose in autumn 2016, which:

  • demands an immediate cessation of hostilities, including all land, sea and air military activities; and
  • calls for the sides to resume negotiations on the basis of the Special Envoy’s proposals.

A resolution could additionally:

  • demand that the parties allow unhindered access for aid and comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law, including avoiding targeting civilian infrastructure and harming civilians;
  • demand that the ban on commercial flights to and from Sana’a be lifted;
  • affirm that the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM) should provide clearance to and oversee inspections of commercial shipments to Yemen in accordance with resolution 2216, call on member states to cooperate fully with UNVIM and request the Secretary-General to review UNVIM’s performance and provide a report to the Committee;
  • demand that the parties cooperate with efforts to rehabilitate Hodeidah port, including allowing the delivery of cranes to facilitate essential imports of food, fuel and medicine; and
  • stress the importance of accountability for alleged breaches of international humanitarian law.

Another option is holding fortnightly meetings at Council expert-level with OCHA to keep members informed about the deepening humanitarian crisis and about protection of civilians.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Yemen is a difficult conflict for the Council to deal with politically because of members’ relationships, in particular with Saudi Arabia. The UK, the US and Egypt, which are allies of Saudi Arabia, and Council members in general have been unwilling or reluctant to take positions against Saudi preferences. These have included Saudi Arabia’s opposition to any new Council resolutions on the conflict. Russia has played a role in making Council products more even-handed between the parties, highlighting Houthi perspectives, but has often raised the conflict in the face of criticism regarding its role in Syria.

During the second half of 2016, the US was driving the Quad’s activities to break the political impasse and to back the roadmap. With the change in the US administration, it would seem that the US is likely to reduce this pressure, in large part because of a more sympathetic view regarding the Saudi narrative about Iran’s role in the conflict.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

 

Security Council Resolutions
23 February 2017 S/RES/2342 This resolution renewed the Yemen sanctions regime.
14 April 2015 S/RES/2216 This resolution demanded the Houthis to withdraw from all seized areas and to relinquish all seized arms, and established an arms embargo on the Houthis and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Other
11 January 2017 S/2017/81 This was the Panel of Experts’ final report.
26 January 2017 S/PV.7871 This was a briefing on Yemen.

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