September 2016 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  New Zealand holds the presidency for September. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in August 2016. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for September Read more

• In Hindsight: The Story of the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism in Yemen

  Among the several controversies surrounding the Yemen conflict, there is one that has received relatively little attention. The creation of the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism to facilitate commercial shipping to Yemen, a country that in the pre-war period relied on foreign imports for 90 percent of its food, is another example of the difficult relationship between the UN and the Saudi Arabia-led coalition fighting on behalf of the Yemen government. It also demonstrates the Security Council’s reluctance to insist on the proper implementation of its own resolution. Read more

• Syria

  New Zealand’s Prime Minister, John Key, will preside over a high-level Security Council meeting on Syria aimed at ensuring the peace process gets back on track. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will brief at the meeting, which is set for 21 September. At press time no outcome was envisaged. Council members will also receive their regular monthly briefings on the humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks. Read more

• South Sudan

  In early September, the Council is expected to conduct a visiting mission to South Sudan and another state in the region, which had yet to be determined at press time. Also in September, the Council will consider the Secretary-General’s report, which is expected to include detailed information on the regional protection force authorised in resolution 2304 in August.  Read more

• Liberia

  The mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) expires on 30 September. The Council is expected to adopt a resolution in September renewing the mission's mandate in its current configuration for a period of three months, pending the recommendations of the Secretary-General’s assessment mission due in November.    Read more

• Afghanistan

  In September, the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Afghanistan, during which it will consider the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Tadamichi Yamamo, who was appointed as the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Afghanistan and head of UNAMA in June, is expected to brief. Read more

• Libya

  In September, the Council is expecting a briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Martin Kobler, followed by consultations. The Council will also receive a briefing by the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia). Read more

• Somalia

  In September, the Council will consider the Secretary-General’s 120-day report on Somalia. The Council is also expecting the AU to submit a report on the implementation of the AU Mission in Somalia’s (AMISOM) mandate—the first such report to be received since 2013. Special Representative of the Secretary-General Michael Keating is expected to brief the Council, followed by consultations. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In September, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez (Venezuela), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work. The Committee will have to make a decision on a new slate of candidates for its panel of experts, once they are proposed by the Department of Political Affairs.  Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In late September, the Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Secretary-General’s recommendations regarding measures to prevent attacks on health care in armed conflict, as requested by resolution 2286 of 3 May. Briefers may include the Secretary-General and representatives of civil society, although this had yet to be confirmed at press time. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In September, the Department of Peacekeeping Operations will brief Council members in consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). The Secretary-General’s report is due 22 September. No outcome is expected. Read more