December 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Chad will hold the presidency of the UN Security Council in December. Read more

• Notable Dates for December

  Notable dates for December Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in November 2014. Read more

• Syria

  Special Adviser Sigrid Kaag and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos are expected to provide separate briefings, respectively, on the destruction of chemical weapons and the humanitarian situation. Read more

• Yemen

  In December, Council members are expected to hold their 60-day briefing in consultations with Special Adviser Jamal Benomar. In addition, it is anticipated that Council members will also receive a briefing from the chair of the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė (Lithuania). Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In December, the Council will receive a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous, on the quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda is also expected to provide the semi-annual briefing on the Court’s work in Darfur. At press time, no Council outcome regarding Darfur was anticipated in December. UNAMID’s mandate expires on 30 June 2015.  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In December, Council members will hold their quarterly meeting on implementation of resolution 2046 on Sudan-South Sudan relations, as outlined in a 21 August presidential note. Council members are also expected to discuss the report of the Secretary-General on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), which expires on 28 February 2015. At press time, no outcome was anticipated on these matters during the month.   Read more

• Liberia

  The Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), which is due to expire on 31 December, as well as a resolution regarding sanctions measures, which are due to expire on 10 December. Prior to the sanctions adoption, Council members will hold consultations on the final report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Committee. Read more

• Subsidiary Bodies

  In December, the subsidiary body chairpersons from countries that will be finishing their two-year term on the Council are expected to brief about their work and experience chairing the different sanctions committees and working groups. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In December, the Council will be briefed, most likely by the Special Representative Babacar Gaye, on the Secretary-General’s MINUSCA report due on 1 December.   Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė (Lithuania) will brief the Council on the final report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 Central African Republic (CAR) Sanctions Committee. Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In December, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on the ad-hoc international criminal tribunals. The Presidents and Prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) are expected to brief the Council. ICTY President Theodor Meron will also brief the Council as President of the Residual Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals as well as ICTR Prosecutor Hassan Bubacar Jallow as the Residual Mechanism’s Prosecutor. Read more

• UNOCA/LRA

  In December, the Security Council will be briefed by Abdoulaye Bathily, Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), on the Secretary-General’s report on UNOCA and the implementation of the regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Either a presidential or a press statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Sahel

  In December, Special Envoy for the Sahel Hiroute Guebre Sellassie is expected to brief the Council on the implementation of the UN’s integrated Sahel strategy. No outcome is expected. Read more

• UN-AU Partnership on Peace Operations

  In December, at the initiative of Chad, the Council is expected to hold an open debate on the evolution of the partnership between the UN and the AU in UN-mandated peace operations. A presidential statement is a likely outcome. Read more

• Libya

  In December, the Council will be briefed on developments in Libya, likely by Bernardino León, the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The briefing will be followed by consultations. The Council will also likely receive the periodic briefing by the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana (Rwanda), followed by consultations on the Libya sanctions regime. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  The Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In December, the Council is expected to receive the final report of the current international military mission in Afghanistan, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and adopt a resolution regarding its successor mission. (ISAF’s Council authorisation expires on 31 December.) Read more

• Countering Terrorism and Transnational Organised Crime

  In December, the Council is expected to hold a high-level open debate on counter-terrorism and terrorism’s linkages with transnational organised crime. The Foreign Minister of Chad, Moussa Faki Mahamat, is expected to preside. A resolution is the anticipated outcome. Read more

• Iran

  In December, the chair of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia), is due to present to the Council his final quarterly briefing on the Committee’s work. (Australia’s term as an elected member ends on 31 December. At press time it was not decided who would be taking over the chairmanship.) Read more