August 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  The UK will hold the presidency of the Council in August. An open debate on the role of the Security Council in conflict prevention, with briefings by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, is planned.... Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other isses are included in this Status Update of Security Council activilty in July 2014. Read more

• Notable Dates for August

  Notable Dates for August Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Action on Downed Passenger Flights

  Over the past 60 years, nearly 20 civilian planes have been shot down in various places around the globe. Some downings occurred when a plane strayed off its route into the territory of a state that perceived the aircraft as... Read more

• Conflict Prevention

  The UK, as part of its August presidency, is planning an open debate on conflict prevention with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay as briefers. A resolution or a presidential statement is a potential outcome. Read more

• South Sudan

  In early August, the Council is expected to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) with Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet expected to brief. The 25 July Secretary-General’s UNMISS report (S/2014/537) will serve as a basis for the discussion. South Sudan will also be a priority for the Council visiting mission to Africa planned for August. The mission’s mandate expires on 30 November.  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In August, the Council expects to hold its monthly consultations on Sudan-South Sudan issues. It will also consider in consultations the bimonthly report of the Secretary-General (S/2014/518) on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). The Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan and South Sudan Haile Menkerios is likely to brief on Sudan-South Sudan issues, while a representative of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations will brief on UNISFA. The mandate of UNISFA expires on 15 October.  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is also expected to provide the quarterly briefing to the Council, likely in consultations. Joint Special Representative and head of UNAMID Mohamed Ibn Chambas is scheduled to brief. Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is also expected to provide the quarterly briefing to the Council, likely in consultations, on the committee’s work. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In August, the Council will be briefed on preparations for the deployment of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), likely by Special Representative and head of MINUSCA Babacar Gaye. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In August, Mark Simmonds, UK Minister for Africa, will preside over a high-level meeting on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), Martin Kobler, will brief, as well as possibly the exiting Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Mary Robinson. The newly appointed Special Envoy, Said Djinnit (Algeria), may also participate, as may representatives of regional organisations and countries of the region.  Read more

• Burundi

  In August, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB), Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, will brief the Council. The chair of the Peacebuilding (PBC) Burundi configuration (Switzerland) will also brief. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In August, the Council will hold consultations on Guinea-Bissau. Members will consider the 90-day report on the restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau. No outcome is expected. Read more

• Libya

  In August, Council members are likely to be briefed on developments in Libya by Tarek Mitri, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), and then meet in consultations. Read more

• Syria

  Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission, will brief Council members on the chemical weapons track. Later in the month, Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Kyung-wha Kang will brief on progress made in delivering aid across borders and conflict lines following the adoption of resolution 2165. Read more

• Lebanon

  In August, the Security Council will extend the mandate of UNIFIL for a further year. This will be the eighth renewal since the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon in 2006 and will likely be done through a resolution, without any major changes to the mandate. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet is expected to brief Council members on the work of the UNIFIL ahead of the renewal. UNIFIL’s mandate expires on 31 August. Read more

• Yemen

  In August, Council members expect a briefing in consultations on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen.  Read more

• Kosovo

  In August, the Council is due to hold its quarterly debate on Kosovo. Farid Zarif, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), is expected to brief on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General's report by video-teleconference. High-level participation from both Serbia and Kosovo is also likely at the debate.  Read more

• DPRK

  In August, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), will brief Council members in consultations on the work of the Committee. The last 90-day briefing was on 20 May. Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In August, the Council expects to hold a briefing on the protection of humanitarian workers in armed conflict. UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson, ICRC President Peter Maurer and possibly an NGO are expected to brief. In the event that Eliasson is unavailable, it seems that Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos may brief. A resolution or other outcome is a possibility.   Read more

• Visiting Mission to Europe and Africa

  In August, the Council expects to travel to Belgium, the Netherlands, South Sudan, Somalia and Kenya. A briefing on this visiting mission is expected later in the month.  Read more