July 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Rwanda will hold the presidency of the Council in July. A high-level open debate on regional partnerships in UN peacekeeping is planned, to be presided by Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo of Rwanda. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Chairperson of the AU... Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in June 2014. Read more

• Notable Dates for July

  Notable dates for July Read more

• In Hindsight: Sanctions

  The Council has recently demonstrated renewed activity in using sanctions as a tool for maintaining international peace and security. With the adoption of resolution 2140 concerning Yemen on 26 February 2014, the Council reached an all-time high number of concurrent sanctions regimes: 15. Some Council members and observers, however, have recognised that there remains considerable room for improvement in UN sanctions design and implementation. Read more

• Peacekeeping

  In July, as proposed by Rwanda, the Council is expected to hold a high-level open debate on regional partnerships in peacekeeping. It is anticipated that Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo of Rwanda will chair the meeting. AU Commission Chairperson Dlamini Zuma and EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy chief, Catherine Ashton, are expected among the briefers. A resolution is a likely outcome. Read more

• Iraq

  Special Representative Nickolay Mladenov will brief the Council. Deliberations will likely focus on the prospects of forming a unity government and the security implications of the seizure of north-western Iraq by ISIS and the territorial consolidation of Kurdistan. The Secretary-General’s UNAMI report will also be presented, and the mission’s mandate, which expires on 31 July, will likely be renewed for a year. Read more

• Syria

  Early in the month Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)-UN Joint Mission, will brief Council members on the implementation of resolution 2118 regarding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos will brief Council members on humanitarian access later in the month. Council members are also tentatively planning to hold an Arria-formula meeting with the Human Rights Council’s Commission of Inquiry on Syria, which has collated testimonies that indicate a massive number of war crimes and crimes against humanity.  Read more

• Lebanon

  In July, Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly and Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet will brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  Special Coordinator Robert Serry will brief the Council during its quarterly open debate on the Middle East. Issues likely to be raised include the lack of a credible path toward a political solution, Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, East Jerusalem, Israeli settlement expansion, the disproportionate Israeli military response to the disappearance of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli administrative detention. Read more

• South Sudan

  The Council expects to receive a report from the Secretary-General on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) by 25 July, which it will likely not discuss until early August. However, given the dire situation in South Sudan, it is possible that it may be discussed sometime during July, either in a stand-alone meeting or in the context of Sudan-South Sudan consultations.The mandate of UNMISS expires on 30 November.  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In July, the Council is scheduled to hold its monthly meeting on Sudan-South Sudan issues, likely in consultations. The Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan and head of the UN Office to the AU, Haile Menkerios, is expected to brief. At press time, no outcome was anticipated.  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  At press time, it appeared that the Council briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), which had been scheduled for July, might be postponed until August.  No Council outcome was anticipated in July, although the UNAMID mandate is expected to be renewed in August. Read more

• Somalia

  In July, Ambassador Oh Joon (South Korea), chair of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee, is scheduled to brief Council members in consultations. An outcome is not anticipated. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In July, the Council will be briefed on preparations for the deployment of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous.The Council will also hear a briefing by Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė (Lithuania), followed by consultations on the interim report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 2127 Central African Republic Sanctions Committee. Read more

• Libya

  In July, Council members are likely to be briefed on developments in Libya by Tarek Mitri, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Read more

• UNOWA (West Africa)

  In July, the Council will hold its semi-annual briefing and consultations on the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA). Said Djinnit, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General to West Africa and the head of UNOWA, is expected to brief. UNOWA’s mandate—renewed through an exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the President of the Council—expires on 1 December 2016 (S/2013/759). Read more

• Cyprus

  In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for an additional six months ahead of its 31 July expiry. The Special Representative and head of mission, Lisa Buttenheim, will likely brief the Council on the latest UNFICYP report and the status of negotiations.  Read more

• Peacebuilding

  In July, the Council expects to receive a briefing by Ambassadors Vladimir Drobnjak (Croatia) and Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil), the former and current chairs of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), on the seventh annual report of the PBC (A/68/729-S/2014/67). Later, on the day of the briefing, an informal interactive dialogue involving Council members, the six PBC country-configuration chairs and ambassadors of the PBC agenda countries is planned. Read more