April 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Nigeria will preside over the Security Council in April. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in March 2014. Read more

• Notable Dates for April

  Notable Dates for April Read more

• In Hindsight: Obligatory Abstentions

  Article 27(3) of the UN Charter not only enshrines the veto power of permanent members, but also institutes a limitation of this power through the principle of obligatory abstentions. In providing that “in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting”, the Charter seeks to ensure that a Council member “should not be allowed to be party, judge and jury at the same time” (S/PV.4753). Read more

• Threats to International Peace and Security: Prevention and Fight Against Genocide

  In April, the Council will be briefed on the prevention of and fight against genocide to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Possible briefers are Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon or Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson. In addition, the Council may adopt a resolution on the prevention of genocide.  Read more

• Security Sector Reform

  In April, the Council expects to hold an open debate on security sector reform (SSR) and consider the Secretary-General’s 13 August 2013 report “Securing States and Societies: Strengthening the UN Comprehensive Support to SSR”. The first-ever stand-alone resolution on SSR is the likely outcome. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In April, the Council may adopt a resolution on the transformation of MISCA into a UN peacekeeping operation.  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In April, the Council is scheduled to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s forthcoming quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Council members are also likely to hold consultations following the briefing. The Council is also likely to adopt a resolution regarding the recommendations outlined in the Secretary-General’s special report on the effectiveness of UNAMID released 25 February. Read more

• South Sudan

  In April, Council members are scheduled to receive a briefing in consultations on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In April, Council members are scheduled to be briefed in consultations on Sudan-South Sudan issues. A press statement is a potential outcome. The mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) expires on 31 May. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In April, Council members expect a briefing in consultations by the chair (Chile) or one of the vice-chairs (Australia and Rwanda) of the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee on the final report of its Group of Experts (GoE). A resolution renewing the sanctions measures and the mandate of the GoE (both of which expire on 30 April) is likely. The mandate of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) expires on 30 June. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In April, the Council expects a briefing in consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) by Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of MINURSO, and Christopher Ross, the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara. A resolution will likely be adopted to renew MINURSO’s mandate—which expires on 30 April—for another 12 months. Read more

• Mali

  In April, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Albert Gerard Koenders. The briefing will be followed by consultations. Read more

• Syria

  Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission, will brief on the implementation of resolution 2118 regarding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. Later in the month, it is expected that OCHA head Valerie Amos will brief on the second monthly report on the implementation of resolution 2139 on humanitarian access. Read more

• Yemen

  In April, Council members expect a briefing in consultations on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General. Also in April, the Council expects a briefing in consultations from Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė (Lithuania), as chair of the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee. Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  Special Coordinator Robert Serry is expected to brief the Council prior to its quarterly open debate on the Middle East. His comments will likely focus on the lack of any substantial agreement between Israel and Palestine as 29 April approaches, the deadline marking the end of the nine-month period that the parties committed to direct talks. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  The Council is expected to hold an open debate on conflict-related sexual violence. The Secretary-General and Zainab Bangura, the Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, will brief. At press time, no outcome was planned. Read more

• Ukraine

  In April, the Council may consider the situation in Ukraine depending on developments on the ground, both within Ukraine–where the interim government is faced with secessionist threats from pro-Russia elements in the east and southeast and confronted with the de facto annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia–and along the border with Russia in light of military deployments and exercises by Moscow in the area.  Read more