February 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Lithuania will preside over the Security Council in February. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situtions covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in January 2014. Read more

• Notable Dates for February

  Notable Dates for February Read more

• In Hindsight: Changes to UN Peacekeeping in 2013

  The 2013 composition of the Security Council—whose members jointly contributed 22.4 percent of UN peacekeeping personnel as of 31 December 2012—was instrumental in two significant developments regarding the use of force in peacekeeping operations. Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  The Security Council will hold an open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict. The debate will focus on implementing the protection aspects of UN peacekeeping mandates. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos, High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet and a high-level ICRC official are the expected briefers. A presidential statement is the likely outcome. Read more

• Rule of Law

  An open debate on strengthening the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security is planned in February. In addition to member states at large, the Secretary-General will likely address the Council. A presidential statement is expected as an outcome. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In February, the chair of the 2127 Central African Republic Sanctions Committee will brief the Council on the work of its most recent Committee, established by resolution 2127 of 5 December 2013. The Council may also be briefed on the activities of the African-led International Support Mission in the CAR as resolution 2127 requests the AU to report to the Council every 60 days on the deployment and activities of the mission. Read more

• Burundi

  The mandate of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB) expires on 15 February and at press time it seems unlikely—though not out of the question—that it would be renewed. If BNUB is not renewed, the Council may adopt a presidential statement on the situation in Burundi and the termination of BNUB. Read more

• South Sudan

  In February, the Council is scheduled to hold a meeting, likely in consultations, to discuss UNMISS, as well as the broader situation in South Sudan, in accordance with resolution 2132 of 24 December 2013. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet is expected to brief. It is possible that Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNMISS Hilde Johnson will participate via video teleconference.  Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In February, the Council is scheduled to hold one meeting, likely in consultations, on Sudan-South Sudan issues. Haile Menkerios, the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan and South Sudan and head of the UN Office to the AU, is expected to brief during the meeting by videoconferencing. At press time, no outcome was anticipated.  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In February, the Council will likely renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee. The chair of the Committee, Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), will brief Council on the Committee’s work and her January trip to Sudan either in these consultations or another session during the month. Furthermore, the Council expects to receive the Secretary-General’s options and recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) by the end of the month, although this will likely not be discussed in the Council until March. Read more

• Visiting Mission to Mali

  In February, the Council expects to receive a briefing on its visiting mission to Mali. At press time, the mission was scheduled for early February. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In February, the Council is expected to have a briefing and hold consultations on Guinea-Bissau. José Ramos-Horta, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Mission in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), will brief the Council as it considers the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau. Read more

• Syria

  In February, Council members will be briefed by OCHA head Valerie Amos on humanitarian access in Syria. There will also be a briefing in consultations on the implementation of resolution 2118, regarding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons, by Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission. Council members will also be closely following the Geneva II peace talks, developments there will likely inform any Council activity on Syria. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In February, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), is scheduled to brief Council members in consultations. The Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the Committee is due to submit its final report under resolution 2094 by 7 February. The Committee is likely to meet at least once in February to discuss the report.  Read more

• Kosovo

  In February the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Kosovo. Farid Zarif, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of UNMIK, is expected to brief the Council on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Read more

• UN-EU Cooperation

  In February, the Council will hold a meeting on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations, with a focus on strengthening the partnership with the EU. The Council will be briefed by Catherine Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. It is possible that Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will also brief the Council. Read more

• Chairs of Subsidiary Bodies and Penholders for 2014

  Every year, the Security Council revisits its allocation of chairmanships of its subsidiary bodies, a task entrusted to elected Council members. Following deliberations between the P5, and the designation of a P5 coordinator, the coordinator holds separate consultations with the elected members. Decisions regarding the 2014 distribution, coordinated by Russia, were reportedly finalised during the last week of December 2012, although Chad has since recused itself of the allotted chairmanships alleging it was not appropriately consulted. Read more

• Security Council Statistics in 2013

  Most indicators point to a continuing overall downward trend in Council activity in 2013. Beyond this general trend, the year was punctuated by significant decisions that expanded the terms of UN intermission cooperation (resolution 2132) or use of force authorisation (resolution 2098) to new heights, instituted a groundbreaking chemical weapons inspection regime (resolution 2118) and covered new ground in addressing small arms (2117). Read more