January 2014 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Jordan will preside over the Security Council in January. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situtions covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in December 2013.   Read more

• Notable Dates for January

  Notable Dates for January Read more

• In Hindsight: Consensus in the Security Council

  Since the three vetoes by Russia and China over Syria in 2011 and 2012 and the inability of the Security Council to find a solution to the conflict, there has been a common perception that the Council is divided. Likewise, following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Council was viewed as having become badly fractured. However, looking at decisions adopted, the Council is actually divided on just a limited number of issues and otherwise largely operates by consensus Read more

• Syria

  Council members will be briefed on the implementation of resolution 2118, regarding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons, by Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint Mission. Council members will also closely follow preparations for the 22 January Geneva II peace talks and implementation of the presidential statement on humanitarian access. In addition, Luxembourg and the UK are planning an Arria formula meeting focusing on women’s participation in the Syrian transition process. Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In January, Council members are expected to hold one meeting, likely in consultations, on Sudan-South Sudan issues. It is also possible that the Council may discuss the situation in South Sudan, given the fluidity of events on the ground. At press time, it was unclear whether there would be an outcome on these issues in January.  Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In January, the Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the quarterly report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous is expected to brief. At press time, no outcome was anticipated. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In January, the Security Council is due to adopt a resolution extending the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Republic (BINUCA). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of BINUCA, Babacar Gaye, will brief the Council on BINUCA’s latest report. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In January, the Security Council will be briefed on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by the Special Representative and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), Martin Kobler and by the Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Mary Robinson, on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the Region (PSC Framework). Read more

• Burundi

  In January, the Council will be briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB), Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, and Ambassador Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). The briefing will be followed by consultations. Read more

• Mali

  In January, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), Albert Gerard Koenders. The briefing will be followed by consultations. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In January, the Council expects a briefing on the situation in Côte d’Ivoire and on the Secretary-General’s forthcoming report from Aïchatou Mindaoudou Souleymane, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), followed by consultations. No outcome is expected. Read more

• Cyprus

  In January, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months ahead of its 31 January expiry. Lisa Buttenheim, the Special Representative and head of mission, will most likely brief on the forthcoming UNFICYP report, due by 10 January. Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  The Secretary-General is expected to brief the Council prior to its quarterly open debate on the Middle East that will likely focus on the current direct talks between Israel and Palestine. Read more

• Yemen

  In January, the Council expects a briefing on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General. Depending on whether or not the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) has concluded by the time of the briefing, the Council may either adopt a decision welcoming its conclusion and addressing the next steps, or reiterate its concerns and restate its earlier intention to impose sanctions on the spoilers of the political process. Read more