July 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 June 2013
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  • Overview

    The U.S. will preside over the Council in July.  Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in June 2013. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable Dates for July Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Relationship between the Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council

    The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) is the only international body with which members of the Security Council have regular interactions. They have been meeting annually since 2007, alternating between their respective headquarters. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In July, the Security Council will hold a high-level debate on the DRC and the Great Lakes. US Secretary of State John Kerry is likely to preside and other ministers may attend. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. The 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee will receive a briefing from the Group of Experts (GoE) assisting the Committee on their interim report. The chair of the Committee, Ambassador Agshin Mehdiyev (Azerbaijan), will then brief Council members in consultations on the interim report.  Read more

  • Protection of Journalists

    In July, the Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the protection of journalists featuring briefings by representatives of the media. At press time, a concept note was expected to be circulated shortly, but it was unclear whether there would be an outcome. This will be the first time the Council considers this issue in a separate meeting since the adoption of resolution 1738 on the protection of journalists on 23 December 2006.  Read more

  • Central African Republic

    In July, the Security Council expects to be briefed on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Republic (BINUCA). The In July, the Security Council expects to be briefed on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Republic (BINUCA). The briefing will be followed by consultations.   Read more

  • Burundi

    In July, the Council will be briefed by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB), Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, and Ambassador Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). The briefing will be followed by consultations.  Read more

  • Mali

    Following the decision of the Council to go ahead with the transfer of authority from the African-led International Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA) to the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) on 1 July, at press time there was no Mali-related activity scheduled for the Security Council in July. However, it is highly probable that the Council will continue to follow the situation in Mali closely, as presidential elections are scheduled to be held on 28 July. Mali will also likely be discussed during the briefing on the work of the UN Office for West Africa. (Please see a separate brief on West Africa in this Forecast for more details.) A presidential statement welcoming the integrated Sahel strategy is likely to be adopted in July.  Read more

  • Côte d’Ivoire

    In July the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) before it expires on 31 July. A briefing, by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s report, due on 30 June, is also expected. Read more

  • UNOWA (West Africa)

    In July the Council expects to receive a briefing on the work of the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA) from Said Djinnit, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of UNOWA. Read more

  • Sudan/Darfur

    In July, the Council is likely to renew the mandate of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID)—which expires on 31 July—for an additional year. Prior to the renewal, it will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on UNAMID.  Read more

  • Sudan and South Sudan

    In July, the Council expects to hold two meetings, likely in consultations, on compliance by Sudan, South Sudan, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North with resolution 2046. At press time, no Council outcome on these issues was likely.  Read more

  • South Sudan

    The Council will likely renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) before it expires on 15 July. Prior to renewing the mandate, Hilde Johnson, the Special Representative and head of UNMISS, is expected to brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNMISS (S/2013/366). Council members are expected to hold consultations on UNMISS following her briefing.  Read more

  • Somalia

    In July, the Council will likely renew the mandate of the Monitoring Group of the 751/1907 Sanctions Committee concerning Eritrea and Somalia (it expires on 25 August). The Council will also receive the final reports on Eritrea and Somalia from the Monitoring Group and a 120-day briefing from the chair of the 751/1907 Sanctions Committee. The report from the Emergency Relief Coordinator on the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Somalia is due on 22 July. Read more

  • Israel/Palestine

    In July the Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East following a briefing by the Department of Political Affairs. Discussions will likely focus on the stalled Middle East peace process. The briefing will also likely cover recent events in Syria and Lebanon. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In July, Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly will brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s forthcoming report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. The Council’s consideration of Lebanon in July will feed into the renewal of the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which expires on 31 August. Read more

  • Iraq

    In July, Council members are due to receive the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), and the outgoing Special Representative Martin Kobler is expected to brief them on its contents. Read more

  • Cyprus

    In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for an additional six months before the mandate expires on 31 July. Lisa Buttenheim, the Special Representative and head of UNFICYP, will likely brief Council members in consultations on the upcoming report of the Secretary-General on Cyprus. (Resolution 2089 requested the report by 10 July.) Read more

  • UNRCCA (Central Asia)

    In July, Miroslav Jenca, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), is expected to brief Council members in consultations. As has been established practice since these semi-annual briefings began in 2008, a press statement welcoming UNRCCA’s role as a preventive-diplomacy tool is expected. Read more

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