April 2013 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 March 2013
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MIDDLE EAST

Middle East

Expected Council Action

In April the Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, following a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman. Discussions will likely focus on the stalled peace process and the humanitarian and security situations in Gaza and the West Bank. Feltman’s briefing will also likely cover recent events in Syria and Lebanon.

Key Recent Developments

Israel/Palestine

The Security Council’s last quarterly open debate on the Middle East was held on 23 January. Following a briefing by Special Coordinator Robert Serry, who reiterated the need for “concerted action…to salvage the two-state solution”, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki and officials from more than 40 states made statements in either their national capacity or on behalf of regional organisations or groupings.

Since that debate, the Council has received two additional briefings on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question. In his briefing on 26 February, Feltman described 2013 as “a year that could…extinguish what hope remains for a two-state solution”, and added there is “no process of negotiation…on the horizon.” On 25 March, Serry asserted that it was time for “concerted action” to support a “serious international initiative” including through the Middle East Quartet (comprising the UN, the EU, Russia and the US).

Israel held parliamentary elections on 22 January. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party, running in alliance with the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, won 11 fewer Knesset seats than they had previously held, though still more than any other ticket. A new centrist party, Yesh Atid, won the second-most seats. Following weeks of negotiations, a new government coalition was announced on 15 March that included Likud, Yesh Atid, the far-right Jewish Home party and the centre-left Hatnu’a party but excluded the ultra-orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, both of which had been part of Netanyahu’s last government. The new government is expected to focus on domestic issues more than the Palestinian question.

In February, significant tensions arose in the West Bank regarding the situation of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Protests in support of four Palestinian prisoners engaged in hunger strikes led to clashes with the Israeli army on 21 February that injured more than 60 people. On 23 February, Arafat Jaradat, a Palestinian man arrested on 18 February on suspicion of throwing stones at Israeli settlers, died while in Israeli custody. Though Israel’s health ministry asserted that an autopsy of Jaradat did not conclusively determine the cause of death, the Palestinian Minister of Prisoner Affairs subsequently alleged that Jaradat was tortured. In response, a significant portion of the more than 4,500 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons took part in a hunger strike on 24 February, while concurrent protests were held in several towns throughout the West Bank.

During consultations following the 26 February briefing, it appears that Morocco suggested elements to the press expressing concern about the circumstances surrounding the detention and death of Jaradat, though ultimately no agreement was reached. On 17 March, one of the four original hunger-strikers was released into Gaza after ending his strike and agreeing to a plea bargain. Two of the remaining strikers—who had been held without trial since November—ended their strikes on 28 February in advance of a hearing on their case.

On 20 March, US President Barack Obama arrived in Tel Aviv for a four-day visit to the region. Prior to the visit, the White House made clear that Obama would not bring any new proposals with him but that the visit was rather a “listening tour”. Speaking in Ramallah on 21 March following a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Obama was critical of Israeli settlement activity but did not call for a construction freeze, adding that both sides would have to “think anew” to resolve outstanding issues. In a speech in Jerusalem that afternoon, Obama reiterated the need for negotiations and the fact that they must lead to “two states for two peoples”. Also on 21 March, two rockets fired from Gaza struck southern Israel, but caused no injuries.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In March 2012, the Human Rights Council (HRC) decided to establish an independent international fact-finding mission to investigate the implications of Israeli settlements on the human rights of the Palestinian people throughout the Occupied Palestinian Territories, including East Jerusalem. Following the adoption of this resolution, Israel decided to suspend its cooperation with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the HRC and its mechanisms. Israel did not submit its national report on human rights to the working group of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) due last October, and failed, on 29 January 2013, to appear before the working group of the UPR for its second review scheduled on that day. (This was the first time that a state was absent for its own review.) The HRC decided by consensus to reschedule Israel’s UPR to the 17th session of UPR in October-November.

On 18 March, the HRC held an interactive dialogue with the fact-finding mission, which presented its report released on 7 February (A/HRC/22/63). Also on 18 March, High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay introduced to the HRC her report on the implementation of HRC resolutions on the human rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territories covering November 2011-November 2012 and its addendum covering the period of escalating hostilities from 14-21 November 2012 (A/HRC/22/35 and Add.1).

On 22 March, the HRC adopted four resolutions on the Occupied Palestinian Territories and a resolution regarding the follow-up to the report of the UN independent international fact-finding mission on the Gaza conflict.

Syria

Syria is also likely come up for discussion during the open debate, as it has regularly for over a year. (The ongoing Syrian crisis was first included in the regular monthly briefing to the Council on the Middle East on 25 August 2011.) 

Council members will likely be particularly interested in hearing about developments relating to the Secretary-General’s investigation of allegations that chemical weapons had been used in the conflict. On 19 March, the Government of Syria and the opposition each accused the other of employing chemical weapons in an attack that killed dozens in Aleppo province. France raised the issue in the Council under “other matters” on 20 March. At the media stakeout following those consultations, the president of the Security Council, Ambassador Vitaly Churkin (Russia), indicated that Syria had sent a letter to the Secretary-General requesting an “impartial” investigation of the 19 March incident. Answering questions in his national capacity, he added that the discussions in the Council had included “such exotic proposals” as an investigation of “rumours” of other uses of chemical weapons inside Syria, which he took to be an effort to derail a focused investigation of the Syrian government’s allegation. Ambassador Gérard Araud (France) and Deputy Permanent Representative Philip Parham (UK) spoke subsequently, to provide, as Araud put it, “the other side of the truth, after this fascinating reconstruction of our meeting”. Parham noted that the Syrian National Coalition had alleged two incidents of the use of chemical weapons by the government and that the UK and France would be requesting the Secretary-General to investigate “any reports” of the use of chemical weapons.

On 21 March, in response to the request for an investigation from the Government of Syria, the Secretary-General announced his intention to establish a technical mission to investigate the Aleppo incident. The same day, the Secretary-General received letters from both France and the UK requesting an investigation of several other incidents. In his responses to Syria, France and the UK, the Secretary-General made clear that the current investigation would focus on the specific incident alleged in Aleppo on 19 March, but requested all three governments to provide additional information pertaining to each alleged incident. The Secretary-General reiterated his intentions and his requests in a letter to the Security Council dated 22 March (S/2013/184).

On 25 March, speaking again at the media stakeout, Churkin indicated that he was “perplexed” that the mandate of the mission would not include identifying who deployed the weapons on 19 March. (The Spokesperson for the Secretary-General confirmed on 26 March that the mission would focus on verifying whether or not chemical weapons were used. He also said that additional information regarding the alleged incidents had been received from Syria and the UK.) At the same stakeout, Churkin also confirmed that Russia and China had both requested to have representatives participating as experts in the mission, but had been told by the Secretariat that it was their belief that P5 representatives should not be included. (Speaking to the press on 25 March, US State Department Acting Deputy Spokesperson Patrick Ventrell indicated that the US would support a team that included Russia and China, but that the final determination would be up to the UN.) On 26 March, Churkin told reporters that experts from the P5 would probably not be included in the mission.

Regarding the mission’s composition and mandate, at press time the terms of reference for the investigation had not been finalised. On 26 March, the Secretary-General appointed Ake Sellstrom, the former Chief Inspector with the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) established in 1991 and tasked with ensuring Iraq’s compliance with its disarmament obligations following its invasion and occupation of Kuwait in 1991, to head the mission.

The work of the chemical weapons probe will most likely considerably depend on the security situation in Syria. On 22 March the Security Council adopted a press statement condemning a terrorist attack on a mosque in Damascus that killed more than 40 people, including a senior Muslim cleric (SC/10953). On 24 March, several mortar rounds landed near the hotel in Damascus housing UN staff, prompting the UN to remove nearly half of its international staff from Damascus until the security situation improved.

Lebanon

Feltman’s briefing in April will also likely cover recent events in Lebanon, and may touch on the Secretary-General’s 1559 report, due in mid-April. The Council last met on Lebanon on 14 March, when members heard a briefing in consultations from the Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Derek Plumbly, on the most recent Secretary-General’s 1701 report (S/2013/120). Following the briefing, members issued a press statement that expressed concern over cross-border incidents between Syria and Lebanon and over the impact of the conflict in Syria on the stability of its southern neighbour (SC/10941).  

On 18 March, Syrian aircraft apparently bombed two sites near Arsal. In response to Syrian denials, Lebanese President Michel Sleiman confirmed the strikes, which he described as “an unacceptable violation of [Lebanon’s] sovereignty”.

The political situation in Lebanon also significantly deteriorated in March, as sectarian tensions escalated. On 22 March, Mikati announced his resignation following an impasse in the cabinet regarding the extension of the mandate of Internal Security Forces Chief Major General Ashraf Rifi, the political deadlock over a new electoral law and the stalled establishment of the election supervisory commission. (Parliamentary elections are expected in June.) On 23 March, Sleiman accepted Mikati’s resignation, but asked him to continue as the head of a caretaker government until a new government could be formed. Consultations on a new government were set to begin during the last week of March.

Key Issue

The key issue remains the lack of progress in the Israel/Palestine peace process and whether or not the Security Council can have any impact on that process.

Underlying Problems

The major obstacles facing the Middle East peace process remain unchanged: the Palestinian Authority requires an end to settlement activity as a prerequisite to negotiations, while Israel only accepts talks without preconditions. The prominence of the Jewish Home party (which is popular among Israeli settlers) in the new government and the government’s stated interest in focusing on domestic issues suggest that returning to negotiations will not be a priority for Israel.

Further complicating matters is the possibility that the Palestinian Authority could use its upgraded status at the UN to press claims against Israel through the International Criminal Court, an action that Israel would find counter-productive to returning to negotiations. (In November the General Assembly adopted a resolution conferring non-member observer state status on Palestine.)

Finally, the financial crisis facing the Palestinian Authority has continued to worsen in 2013, a situation some have speculated could lead Abbas to dissolve it altogether, returning the administration of the West Bank to Israel in an effort to compel it to return to negotiations.

Options

The Council has very few options in April on the Middle East peace process, and it is likely that the open debate will again feature the reiteration of Council members’ previously stated positions.

The Council’s last substantive outcome specifically addressing the Middle East peace process was resolution 1850 adopted on 16 December 2008.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Most Council members believe that no activity will be possible in the Security Council on the Middle East peace process without the active support of the US and are waiting to see what, if anything, develops in the region in the wake of Obama’s visit. The most recent effort to adopt a resolution on Israel/Palestine took place on 18 February 2011, when a draft resolution (S/2011/24) condemning Israeli settlement activity was vetoed by the US.

Some Council members believe a new initiative could begin elsewhere, beyond the Council, either in the form of renewed activity by the Middle East Quartet or a new initiative from the League of Arab States, which, at press time, was holding its annual summit in Doha, Qatar.

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UN Documents on Israel/Palestine

Security Council Resolutions  
8 January 2009 S/RES/1860 This resolution called for an immediate, durable and fully respected ceasefire leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
16 December 2008 S/RES/1850 This resolution declared Council support for the Annapolis peace process and its commitment to the irreversibility of bilateral negotiations.
11 August 2006 S/RES/1701 This resolution expanded UNIFIL by 15,000 troops and expanded its mandate.
2 September 2004 S/RES/1559 This resolution urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory, and free and fair presidential elections.
19 November 2003 S/RES/1515 This resolution stated the necessity for a two state solution and unanimously endorsed the Quartet’s Road Map.
Secretary-General’s Reports  
27 February 2013 S/2013/120 This report covered the implementation of resolution 1701.
Security Council Letters  
25 March 2013 S/2013/184 This letter from the Secretary-General informed the Council of his intention to conduct an investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Security Council Press Statements  
22 March 2013 SC/10953 This press statement condemned a terrorist attack on a mosque in Damascus that killed more than 40 people.
14 March 2013 SC/10941 This press statement expressed grave concern over the impact of the Syrian conflict on Lebanon and called for swift progress towards parliamentary elections.
Security Council Meeting Records  
25 March 2013 S/PV.6940 This was the monthly briefing by Special Coordinator Robert Serry on the situation in the Middle East.
26 February 2013 S/PV.6926 This was the monthly briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman on the situation in the Middle East.
23 January 2013 S/PV.6906 Special Coordinator Robert Serry briefed the Council at its quarterly open debate and reiterated the need for “concerted action…to salvage the two-state solution”, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki participated at what was the first time the observer mission of Palestine addressed the Council as a state since the General Assembly conferred non-member state status to Palestine on 29 November.
23 January 2013 S/PV.6906 (Resumption 1) This was the resumption of a meeting during which Special Coordinator Robert Serry briefed the Council.
25 August 2011 S/PV.6602 This was a briefing on the Middle East.
Human Rights Council Documents  
6 March 2013 A/HRC/22/35 This was the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on the human rights situation in the occupied Palestinian territories.
6 March 2013 A/HRC/22/35/Add.1 This was the addendum to the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on the human rights situation in the occupied Palestinian territories.
7 February 2013 A/HRC/22/63 This was the report of the independent international fact-finding mission to investigate the impact of Israeli settlements on human rights.
Other  
18 February 2011 S/2011/24 This was the draft resolution on settlements vetoed by the US. The other 14 Council members voted in favour.

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