December 2006 Monthly Forecast

• Lebanon

  In December the Council is expected to intensify its focus on the fragile situation in Lebanon. The report of the International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will be of heightened interest given the assassination of Lebanese cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel on 21 November. Read more

• Overview

  The Qatar presidency in December will be a challenging one. December is a short month because Council members usually strive to finish their work by Christmas.  However, there are a near record-high number of issues on the December calendar. These... Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  The Council is expected to follow its thirty year practice and extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan Heights, which expires on 31 December. Read more

• Somalia

  The Council seems likely to continue to be divided about the merits of a regional military mission (IGASOM) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) being deployed in Somalia to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). At press time it seemed possible that a US draft resolution giving IGASOM a mandate to support the TFG could be circulated soon. Read more

• Liberia

  The Council will consider the future of Liberia diamond sanctions by 20 December. The arms embargo, the travel ban and the mandate of the Panel of Experts (whose final report is due by 15 December) are expected to be renewed. Modifications to the Panel's mandate in light of recent changes in the sanctions regime are possible. Read more

• Iraq

  The quarterly report of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) is due on 7 December, with a briefing from the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Iraq, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, and the regular briefing by the US on the activities of the Multinational Force (MNF). Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  The Council will pay close attention to post-election developments and potential violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in December. The new president is expected to be sworn in during the month. A Secretariat briefing is expected.At the time of writing, the EU force (EUFOR RD Congo) is set to expire on 30 November, with a phased withdrawal in December. Renewal is not likely, but a serious deterioration of security could lead to reconsideration and also prompt a Council statement. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  The Council is expected to consider the report of the Secretary-General on the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS). Its mandate expires on 31 December. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)/Chad/CAR

  Council members are likely to support the proposed hybrid force in Darfur, but without enthusiasm and only as a last resort if it's essential in negotiating an agreement with Sudan. At press time, the outcome of the 30 November AU Summit on this issue was still unknown. Read more

• Al-Qaida & Taliban Sanctions Committee

  The mandates of the Al-Qaida and Taliban Sanctions Committee (known as the 1267 Committee) and its Monitoring Team are set to expire on 29 December. The Monitoring Team assists the Committee in monitoring implementation of the measures imposed by resolutions 1267, 1333, 1390 and 1617 on Al-Qaida, Usama bin Laden, the Taliban and other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with them. Read more

• Cyprus

  The mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) expires on 15 December. It is expected to be renewed for six months. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notables date for December 2006. Read more

• Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict

  On 4 December, the Council will receive an open briefing from Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Jan Egeland, followed by an open debate. No formal Council action is expected. Read more

• CTED Review

  Partly in response to concerns of member states that the Council was imposing a subsidiary body on the UN with unprecedented responsibility, the CTED was established for an initial period ending 31 December 2007 with the Council to conduct a comprehensive review by December 2005. However, in light of the extended delays between the adoption of resolution 1535 in March 2004 and the CTED becoming operational only on 15 December 2005, the review was reset to take place before 31 December 2006. Read more

• Iran

  It remains unclear when the draft resolution currently being considered by the P5 plus Germany (P5+1) will be formally presented to the Council. This draft resolution would impose sanctions against Iran because of its non-compliance with resolution 1696, which demands that Iran suspend all nuclear enrichment-related and reprocessing activities. Read more

• Burundi

  The Council is expected to welcome the Secretary-General's report marking the end of the UN Operation in Burundi (ONUB) and the start of the UN Integrated Office in Burundi (Bureau intégré des Nations Unies au Burundi, or BINUB). Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  The Council will renew the mandate of the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI), which expires on 15 December. Read more

• Sierra Leone

  The Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) for 12 months from 1 January. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in November 2006. Read more

• Aide Memoire

    Important matters pending for the Council are: Three requests from the 2005 World Summit related to the Council’s work have seen no recent progress. The Summit requested “fair and clear procedures for listing and de-listing individuals for targeted sanctions”.  Action is still... Read more